Ben Bernanke’s Hush Money - Page 3

william the wierd · 07-29-2008, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buddha86

The three G's Gold, Grub, Guns

I don't know about that. In 1786 when the Rhode Island tax farmers 0 taxable economic activity the three Gs were not needed except for grub. I seriously doubt that the Dow will decline to 2 digits from 5 and I doubt we will see more than 9 months at three digits Dow. I also find it unlikely that unemployment will exceed 90%. The economy will crash probably 3 times worse than the great depression to say 75% unemployment in 2013 but that is a far cry from the end of the world as we know it: homeless bums will still have their PDAs and laptops; the bondholders for GM will sell the plant and equipment to Kia or Hundai; a new constitutional convention will be called and life will go on under the new and improved republic.

anonnymous · 07-30-2008, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by william the wierd

I don't know about that. In 1786 when the Rhode Island tax farmers 0 taxable economic activity the three Gs were not needed except for grub. I seriously doubt that the Dow will decline to 2 digits from 5 and I doubt we will see more than 9 months at three digits Dow. I also find it unlikely that unemployment will exceed 90%. The economy will crash probably 3 times worse than the great depression to say 75% unemployment in 2013 but that is a far cry from the end of the world as we know it: homeless bums will still have their PDAs and laptops; the bondholders for GM will sell the plant and equipment to Kia or Hundai; a new constitutional convention will be called and life will go on under the new and improved republic.

I'm glad you believe that crap but once long term credit dries up from a lack of foreign financing life will be quite different for everyone. Bondholders for GM will lose everything and there will be no convention because of the anarchy created by the millions of people with no source of income and no way to feed their families. It might not be the end of the world but you damn sure would not like to live here.

michaelr · 07-30-2008, 12:47 PM

America's house price time bomb

Quote:

With the American housing market in its worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, President Bush is authorising new legislation to pave the way for massive new government intervention designed to slow the slide.

The intervention would come as a little known quirk of US law threatens to drive down house prices even faster.

Here.........

So they realize that this plan will drive home prices even further and yet they continue on this self destructive path. Personally I am not surprised, but you may be.

michaelr · 07-30-2008, 02:50 PM

This in the next bomb to hit the economy.

U.S. Treasuries: Worse than the US Dollar!

That and the derivatives market...

IMF Contemplates System Failure. Could it be the 1.2 Quadrillion in Derivatives?

I understand the actual numbers are 6 Quadrillion, but who's counting.

william the wierd · 07-30-2008, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by michaelr

This in the next bomb to hit the economy.

U.S. Treasuries: Worse than the US Dollar!

That and the derivatives market...

IMF Contemplates System Failure. Could it be the 1.2 Quadrillion in Derivatives?

I understand the actual numbers are 6 Quadrillion, but who's counting.

Thanks for the links. Ultra shorts on treasuries is a good idea.

michaelr · 07-30-2008, 05:19 PM

Bush White House Hides True Scope of Federal Deficit

Quote:

“The White House has issued figures indicating that President Bush and his enablers in Congress will leave his successor with a budget deficit of $482 Billion for Fiscal Year 2009, which is a record. How’s that for a legacy?

“As shocking as this deficit figure is, that’s still not the true scope of our budget woes because it excludes $80 Billion in war costs and $227 Billion borrowed from the Social Security Trust Fund.

‘The real budget deficit is therefore $789 Billion.

This lands squarely in the youcantmakethisshitup department.

anonnymous · 07-30-2008, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by william the wierd

Thanks for the links. Ultra shorts on treasuries is a good idea.

Problem is that most businesses need long term financing and shorts will have the effect of driving up interest rates thereby causing a longer term recession by stumping growth. Truthfully the writing is on the wall, the coming collapse can not be stopped. The best thing one can do is prepare themselves and their families for the coming disaster.

william the wierd · 07-30-2008, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anonnymous

Problem is that most businesses need long term financing and shorts will have the effect of driving up interest rates thereby causing a longer term recession by stumping growth. Truthfully the writing is on the wall, the coming collapse can not be stopped. The best thing one can do is prepare themselves and their families for the coming disaster.

Actually short coverage is the only thing that will prevent total collapse, China is holding off on the "nuke" option until after the olympics. How long after the olympics they delink their currency and dump their treasuries is an open question but only short coverage will provide any sort of floor to avoid a currency collapse.

Mortgage walkaways or in more sophisticated cases return of title in lieu of foreclosure is already causing mortgage interest rates to climb again. Bankruptcies such as Sharper Image and Bennigan's are increasing in frequency. Given that there are far fewer full service Banks the rate of bank failure is quite nasty. Interest rates are going to go way up but MasterCard could still go belly up because people are losing their jobs along with their houses.

anonnymous · 07-30-2008, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by william the wierd

Actually short coverage is the only thing that will prevent total collapse, China is holding off on the "nuke" option until after the olympics. How long after the olympics they delink their currency and dump their treasuries is an open question but only short coverage will provide any sort of floor to avoid a currency collapse.

Mortgage walkaways or in more sophisticated cases return of title in lieu of foreclosure is already causing mortgage interest rates to climb again. Bankruptcies such as Sharper Image and Bennigan's are increasing in frequency. Given that there are far fewer full service Banks the rate of bank failure is quite nasty. Interest rates are going to go way up but MasterCard could still go belly up because people are losing their jobs along with their houses.

You have a very valid point with regards to China.

michaelr · 08-01-2008, 10:09 AM

Stressed banks borrow record amount from Fed

I wonder how long this will last. I think the printers will need a break soon.