Thread: US global dominance 'set to wane'

US global dominance 'set to wane'



US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends.

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence. It also says the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict. However, the report concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and will depend on the actions of world leaders.

It will make sombre reading for President-elect Barack Obama, the BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says, as it paints a bleak picture of the future of US influence and power.

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term.

Washington will retain its considerable military advantages, but scientific and technological advances; the use of "irregular warfare tactics"; the proliferation of long-range precision weapons; and the growing use of cyber warfare "increasingly will constrict US freedom of action", it adds.
Nevertheless, the report concludes: "The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant."

The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue.

But the latest Global Trends report says that rising economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multi-polar international system. The EU is meanwhile predicted to become a "hobbled giant", unable to turn its economic power into diplomatic or military muscle.

A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict.

Global warming, along with rising populations and economic growth will put additional strains on natural resources, it warns, fuelling conflict around the globe as countries compete for them. "Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th Century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report says. "Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could re-emerge."

Full article:BBC NEWS | Americas | US global dominance 'set to wane'
Full report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/h...nal_Report.pdf
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Related to my previous thread on the Goldman Sachs report on rising economies of India, China, Brazil etc - It seems reasonable to assume that if current trends persist the international system of the first half of the 21st century will be one of significant shifts and change. Post-Cold War dreams of an American hyperpower or an "American Century" seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Of course out dominance will wane. We've elected an individual as president who would be unqualified, based on his resume, to manage a shoe store.

I'm not sure we're a good influence on the world anyway.

Thanks for posting the link to the whole thing. I was looking for it earlier and having trouble.

Although the Earth contains a plentiful supply
of water, only 1 percent is fit or available for
human consumption and some 20 percent of
the world’s population does not have access to
fresh drinking water. Regions experiencing water
scarcity will increase as the global population
increases and as climate change induced
droughts occur. Both developing and developed
countries will be affected. Various industries
increasingly will compete for water, including
agriculture, food, and beverage processing
plants as well as chemical, pharmaceutical,
and semiconductor industries. First movers
to develop and deploy cheap energy-efficient
clean-water technologies could gain huge
geopolitical advantage.

This is listed as "probable".

Originally Posted by Blueneck

This is listed as "probable".

You know, I'm 48 years old, and I've heard that prediction ever since elementary school. It hasn't happened yet, except perhaps in the most unindustrialized areas.

There is very little easier to produce than fresh water. If people can't it's because they have a backward economy and they need to embrace market practices.