Thread: Iran's Drive For Nuclear Weapons - Reality Verses Rhetoric

The alarm goes off. A shar pelbow in the back informs you the snooze timer's gone off for thesecond time. Grumbling through the sleepy haze, you fumble for the remote and flip on the television. Lying in bed, you await the standardfare of mindless morning chit-chat intermingled with the local forecast and traffic report.



Rudely, you're aroused from your foggy semi-consciousness as a reporter states that both the US Geological Survey and sources in the Pentagon have confirmed that Iran has successfully tested a nuclear weapon. Seismic data indicates the test occurred in the Dasht-e Lut, a desert region of salt flats located in Iran's southeastern Kerman province. This coincides with video of the test site released by the government in Tehran.



As golden slumbers blissfully filled your eyes, a phone rang in the White House residence. With it, the President received the dreaded 3AM callthat Hillary Clinton had clairvoyantly prognosticated during the 2008 primaries. In similar fashion to your own, the Commander-In-Chief was shocked out of his serene repose with news that the world had a new upstart and unwelcome member of the nuclear club - Iran.



As unsettling as it may be, many intelligence analysts believe this scenario may well play out sometime over the next 18 to 24 months. In the interim, there is a growing consensus among Conservative commentators and pundits that Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons is driven by a virulent anti-Israelism and aspirations of regional hegemony. However, a closer look beyond the apocalyptic rhetoric reveals a chorus of neorealist historical and geopolitical forces compelling the mullahs to the mastery and weaponization of the atom. Among them are....



Nationalism- With it's roots firmly set in antiquity as one of the world's oldest civilizations, there is a great sense of cultural and historical pride among Iranians, particularly the dominant Persians. There is, however,a sense that Iran does not enjoy a concomitant level of respect and influence in the international arena. Accordingly, many believe that mastery of nuclear energy and possession of even a limited nuclear arsenal are a means to an end. The rationale is predicated on the belief that by joining the elite few that are counted among the members of the globe's nuclear club, Iran will gain the respect, prestige and status commensurate with it's historical significance.



Religion - Looking at the world and national security through the prism of faith, the Shia mullahs of the regime find themselves politically isolated and strategically disadvantaged. A minority among the Muslim ummah, Iran views itself as the political guardian of the Shia faithful. Though it's influence has grown significantly in the wake ofthe removal of it's nemesis, Saddam Hussein, Tehran still finds itself located in a region populated by Sunni-dominated antagonists. Despite talk of a burgeoning "Shia Crescent", Iran remains isolated in the Muslim political world as thelone defender of what the Sunni majority view as the apostate followers of the martyred Imam Hussain.



Furthermore,the mullahs find themselves to be at a strategic disadvantage in the religious/philosophical realm. Gazing across the globe, they see Christian (United States, Great Britain, France and Russia), Jewish(Israel), Hindu (India), Confucian(China), Atheist (North Korea) and Sunni (Pakistan) nuclear powers.Again, they find themselves alone in a neighborhood teeming with a nuclear-armed Jewish state to the west, Sunni and Hindu bombs to the east and Christian bombs deployed via warships on their doorstep in the Persian Gulf. Despite Ayatollah Khomeini's condemnation of nuclear weapons, there are factions within the regime that believe ultimate security for the Shia and the Islamic Republic can only be found in the ultimate weapon.



Distrust of the international community- In spite of international conventions forbidding their use, Saddam Hussein nonetheless unleashed chemical weapons on Iran over the course of the bloody Iran-Iraq War in the '80s. At the time, Saddam was seen as the Sunni bulwark against the spread of Khomeini's Shia revolution and the potential dangers it posed to the lifeblood of the West's industrialized economies - oil. Consequently, Iran's Gulf neighbors and the West gave their tacit approval of the Butcher of Baghdad's blatant war crimes through their silence.



Adding to the antipathybetween Iran and it's Gulf neighbors is the fact that much of Saddam'swar efforts were underwritten by billions of dollars in loans from suchSunni stalwarts as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.



In addition to it's complacence in response to Saddam's aggression, the international community's inconsistency and hypocrisy on nuclear weapons fuels Tehran's paranoia and distrust. Israel hides it's nuclear arsenal behind the shield of "strategic ambiguity" and America's veto in the UN Security Council. Meanwhile, nuclear pariahs Pakistan and India are rehabilitated and embraced by the United States once they serve Washington's strategic interests.



Yet, the US has aggressively and repeatedly prodded the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer Iran to the Security Council for sanction. In tandem with it's dogged hounding of the IAEA, Washington also made multiple attempts to peal off Iran's defenders on the Security Council, Russia and China.The objective, to expose the regime to stiffer, broad-based sanctions,was seen as a necessary step that must be taken prior to any military action the US might eventually feel compelled to take. All of this adds up to a distrust of the international community that has become an article of political faith among the ranks of the regime.



Regime Survival- The primary objective of the regime - and any government, for that fact - is survival and continuity. In prioritizing existential threats,the United States is easily at the top of Tehran's list. America alone enjoys a unique combination of both conventional and strategic assets and capabilities, many of which are currently deployed around Iran's borders.



With troops in excess of 100,000 in Iraq and Afghanistan, bases on the Arabian side of the Gulf and carrier battle groups routinely patrolling both the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,Iran finds itself virtually surrounded by American forces. That's not even mentioning the fact that American B-2 Spirit strategic bombers can reach the heart of the Islamic Republic from their home bases in Kansas. Should follow-on strikes be required, America's arsenal of naval and air-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles allow her the ability to attack Iran from a distance with minimal exposure to harm for her own forces.



Facing this imposing array of assets and capabilities, Tehran has become an ardent student of recent history.



Saddam Hussein, maintaining "strategic ambiguity" about weapons of mass destruction, found himself toppled from power in a flurry of America's"shock and awe" military might. His sons cut to pieces in a firefight with personnel from the 101st Airborne Division, Saddam was eventually captured hiding unceremoniously in the dirt of a spider hole and met Allah at the end of a hangman's noose.



Meanwhile, the incessant provocations and belligerent saber-rattling of North Korea's Kim Jong-il merits little more than nervous chatter and hollow condemnations. Why? The answer is simplicity itself - nuclear weapons.



The lesson is clear. Those who do not possess nuclear weapons leave themselves at Washington's not-so-tender mercies; those that do possess them keep America at bay and are bombarded by angry condemnations instead of laser-guided bombs.



Though the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate found that Iran suspended it's nuclear research program following America's 2003 invasion of Iraq, it is generally believed to have been aggressively restarted in the wake of Washington's rebuff of what appeared to be a tentative overture for reconciliation from Tehran. In a fit of imperial hubris, the Bush administration then embarked on a term-long two-pronged program that included an ineffective and ultimately insincere diplomatic track in conjunction with repeated bellicose calls for regime change.



With Bush's words ringing in their ears and images of Saddam's inglorious final moments in this world fresh in their minds, the mullahs havetaken his bitter lesson to heart. The Islamic Republic will endure and the American juggernaut will be held at bay through the power of theatom.



Regime survivability through modern technology, dear friends.



Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and a President earnestly hopes to never be roused from his blissful slumber by a 3AM call.

[quote name='Feslin' date='17 August 2009 - 12:24 PM' timestamp='1250529865' post='6631']

lol



I don't care what Khomeini says, if he didn't want nuclear weapons they wouldn't be pursuing the technology.

[/quote]



I seriously doubt he'll be saying much seeing as how he's been dead for 20 years now. Then again, perhaps the regime could hire spirit-channelor John Edwards.....You never know.

Why is Iran getting nukes such a scary thing? Its not like their neighbors don't have them, they do. They have every right to defend themselves, particuarly against a local power that is doing everything in its power to have them attacked by the US. This is nothing more than adding some balance of power to the region. If Israel gave up its nukes I could see Iran having to give up any aspiration to getting them. Until that happens they should seek to get them in order to level the playing field.

[quote name='Dispondent' date='17 August 2009 - 07:38 PM' timestamp='1250555927' post='6899']

Why is Iran getting nukes such a scary thing? Its not like their neighbors don't have them, they do. They have every right to defend themselves, particuarly against a local power that is doing everything in its power to have them attacked by the US. This is nothing more than adding some balance of power to the region. If Israel gave up its nukes I could see Iran having to give up any aspiration to getting them. Until that happens they should seek to get them in order to level the playing field.

[/quote]



Because their a wacked out theocracy and they could help terrorist groups they support acquire weapons. It's not about ICBM'S people.

[quote name='Six' date='17 August 2009 - 08:47 PM' timestamp='1250560020' post='6979']

Because their a wacked out theocracy and they could help terrorist groups they support acquire weapons. It's not about ICBM'S people.

[/quote]



Funny isn't that what everyone said about Pakistan? Don't they use Iran as an example of why they need a missle shield in Europe? Face it this isn't about Iran having nukes, its about Israel not being the only one in the Middle East with nukes.

[quote name='Dispondent' date='17 August 2009 - 09:21 PM' timestamp='1250562114' post='7011']

Funny isn't that what everyone said about Pakistan? Don't they use Iran as an example of why they need a missle shield in Europe? Face it this isn't about Iran having nukes, its about Israel not being the only one in the Middle East with nukes.

[/quote]





Pakistan is a poor comparison and too be honest I really don't think Pakistans possessing Nukes has ever given anyone the warm fuzzies.



But your right, we should keep rolling the dice with these radical theocracies until one of them make my point.

[quote name='Six' date='17 August 2009 - 11:01 PM' timestamp='1250568076' post='7063']

Pakistan is a poor comparison and too be honest I really don't think Pakistans possessing Nukes has ever given anyone the warm fuzzies.



But your right, we should keep rolling the dice with these radical theocracies until one of them make my point.

[/quote]



The threat that Iran offers is not to the US, it is to Israel. That is all there is to it. They aren't developing missle technology to hit the US. They are developing missle technology so they could hit Israel if necessary. The reality is that the double standard we are imposing in the middle east will not strengthen our position. We will not stop Iran from getting nukes if they really want them. Israel will not be able to stop them if they really want them. What we can to is make sure they fully understand the responsibility of having them and what exactly it will mean if something should go amiss. Perhaps we should stop fooling ourselves. We are not what we were 20 years ago.

[quote name='Dispondent' date='17 August 2009 - 11:26 PM' timestamp='1250569570' post='7075']

The threat that Iran offers is not to the US, it is to Israel. That is all there is to it. They aren't developing missle technology to hit the US. They are developing missle technology so they could hit Israel if necessary. The reality is that the double standard we are imposing in the middle east will not strengthen our position. We will not stop Iran from getting nukes if they really want them. Israel will not be able to stop them if they really want them. What we can to is make sure they fully understand the responsibility of having them and what exactly it will mean if something should go amiss. Perhaps we should stop fooling ourselves. We are not what we were 20 years ago.

[/quote]





You missed the point COMPLETLY. They sponsor terrorist, have been for ages so the direct threat to the US is Iran setting up Hamas, Al queda, etc with a means of getting nuclear material inside our borders. Southern border is wide open, Obama's put our security on the back burner.



Also, nuking Israel IS a direct threat to our security. Wipe out Israel and Israel wipes out Iran then the whole region goes south and Russia gets involved, maybe even China not to mention what it would do to our economy.