Thread: Obama approval ratings in key states

I have decided to start a thread mainly for approval polling for President Obama in individual states, as the data comes in. The states will be marked red or blue based on their performance in the 2008 GE.

OHIO:

Quinnipiac
5/10-16/11; 1,379 registered voters, 2.6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Obama approve: 49%
Obama disapprove: 45%
Margin: Obama +4

OHIO 2008 GE results:

Obama: 51.38%
McCain: 46.80%
other: 1.82%
Margin: Obama +4.58%

The Quinnipiac approvals pretty closely mirror the Ohio results from 2008. If this sounds lean to you, OH has tended to give candidates lean margins often. Since 1960 (13 election cycles), the margin was in single digits for 8 of those 13 cycles. Obama's win in Ohio was a larger margin than both of Bush 43's wins, bigger than Clinton in 1992, bigger than Carter in 1976 and bigger than Nixon in 1968. But the Ohio numbers are not really showing any Osama bounce for the President. Essentially, he is hanging tight where he was in 2008.

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NORTH CAROLINA

Civitas / National Research
5/10-11/11; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Obama approve: 51%
Obama disapprove: 45%
Margin: Obama +5

NORTH CAROLINA 2008 GE results:

Obama: 49.70%
McCain: 49.38%
other: 0.92%
Margin: Obama +0.33%


Civitas is a republican polling organization. To show Obama with an approval of +5 is indeed a surprise. Obama's win in NC was historic in that it was the first for a democrat since 1976, when Jimmy Carter swept all of the south. NC was Obama's closest win in 2008 and the second closest race in the Union, after MO. And this win in NJ was the leanest margin in NC's electoral history. So, a positive approval balance from a republican pollster in this critical state, which will host the DemocraticNational Convention in 2012, is definitely newsworthy,
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NEW YORK

Siena Research Institute
5/11-17/11; 807 registered voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Obama approve: 62%
Obama disapprove: 36%
Margin: Obama +26

NEW YORK 2008 GE results:

Obama: 62.88%
McCain: 36.03%
other: 1.1.09%
Margin: Obama +26.86%

The Siena approval ratings very closely match the 2008 election results. New York has voted democratic for 10 of the last 13 cycles, since 1960. Since 1960, no republican except Nixon (1972) has won NY with a double digit margin. Obama's percentage in NY was the highest since 1964 and also higher than all four of FDR's wins 1932-1944. His winning margin (+26.86%) in NY was fourth highest of all time in this state, behind LBJ in 1962, Clinton in 1996 and Warren Harding in 1920. With approval ratings like this, NY is not in play for 2012. These kind of ratings show that Obama is suffering with his base at all.

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NEW JERSEY

Monmouth University
5/12-16/11; 807 adults, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Obama approve: 60%
Obama disapprove: 35%
Margin: Obama +25

NEW JERSEY 2008 GE results:

Obama: 57.14%
McCain: 41.61%
other: 1.26%
Margin: Obama +15.53%

Obama's current ratings are 9.47% higher than his actual win in 2008. This is interesting, as New Jersey is a state also known for it's military installations. Obama's margin in NJ in 2008 was no record-setter, but his percentage was the highest for a democrat since 1964 and the fourth highest overall since 1960, after LBJ, Nixon (1972) and Reagan (1984). To have approval exceeding his last margin by 10 points is yet another sign that the NE is for the most part not in play in 2012.

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And just for good measure, a national poll with surprising results from FOX:

Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
5/15-17/11; 910 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Obama approve: 55%
Obama disapprove: 41%
Margin: Obama +14

To see such polling coming from FOX is certainly a surprise. Let's compare that to the results from 2008:

Obama: 52.87%
McCain: 46.60%
Other: 1.53%
Margin: Obama +7.26% (yes, +7.26% and not +7.27%)

Assuming an average +3% percentage increase for an incumbent by re-election or election of a sitting incumbent (see: 1904, 1936, 1956, 1998, 2004), then here could be an extrapolated outcome for 2012, assuming that the "other" vote stays constant:

Obama: 55.87%
GOP candidate: 43.60%
Other: 1.53%
Margin: Obama +13.26%

Looks a little like the +14% from FOX, eh?

Cherry-picking just one poll for each state (and using different pollsters for each state) is not going to produce a fair picture here.

Also it does no good to mention past election results with putting them into historical context. For example, Obama outperforming FDR in New York is not that impressive considering New York (along with the Northeast in general) was a Republican region in those times.

Originally Posted by Come Home America

Cherry-picking just one poll for each state (and using different pollsters for each state) is not going to produce a fair picture here.

Also it does no good to mention past election results with putting them into historical context. For example, Obama outperforming FDR in New York is not that impressive considering New York (along with the Northeast in general) was a Republican region in those times.

Of course, FDR was FROM New York.

Originally Posted by Come Home America

Cherry-picking just one poll for each state (and using different pollsters for each state) is not going to produce a fair picture here.

Also it does no good to mention past election results with putting them into historical context. For example, Obama outperforming FDR in New York is not that impressive considering New York (along with the Northeast in general) was a Republican region in those times.

What a bunch of horseshit. Tell me, were you dropped on your head as a child and can't fucking read, or what?

I wrote:

I have decided to start a thread mainly for approval polling for President Obama in individual states, as the data comes in.

Are you smart enough to understand what "as data comes in" means, oh ankle biter?

Furthermore, the rankings for Obama in each state is simply a matter of history, without using the prism of what tilt said state had at any one time.

Please grow up and learn to contribute in a meaningful way. Otherwise, go pee on the porch by yourself, o little dog.

Originally Posted by Rassales

Of course, FDR was FROM New York.

So was Al Smith and he still narrowly lost New York State in 1928. Considering the scale of his nationwide landslides, FDR's margins were relatively weak in New York due to its Republican lean.

By contrast, New York is considerably more Democratic than the national average in modern elections, giving Obama a built-in advantage. The comparison is unfair to FDR.

Originally Posted by mtm1963

does it really matter right now?

NO!!!!!

No, but to serve as a baseline for the next 15 months, it is useful. All data can be useful.

Originally Posted by Come Home America

So was Al Smith and he still narrowly lost New York State in 1928. Considering the scale of his nationwide landslides, FDR's margins were relatively weak in New York due to its Republican lean.

Maybe. Al Smith had another demographic problem, didn't he?

Originally Posted by Rassales

Maybe. Al Smith had another demographic problem, didn't he?

Smith did however play an important role in the formation of the new Democratic coalition by which FDR would win his elections. The re-alignment of the Northeast did begin thanks to Smith. He won New York City in 1928 and it never voted Republican again. Although very narrow, his wins in Massachusetts and Rhode Island were also impressive when put into context. The West Virginian conservative Democrat Davis took less than 25% of the vote in Massachusetts just four years earlier. Of course Smith's Catholicism did also result in the first real collapse of the Solid South.

Massachusetts was another Republican state that FDR performed rather poorly in. He didn't even hit 51% there in 1932. To compare it to Obama's victory in the Democratic stronghold of today would again be unfair.