Thread: Obama's War

Obama's War
Liberal interventionism in the age of Obama

Illusions die hard. Especially the ideological kind. When the illusion of Barack Obama, the peacemaker, is finally dispelled, we are going to wake up and find ourselves waist-deep in a war that will soon threaten to dwarf the disastrous invasion of Iraq, both in human and material cost.

We know this from what he has said he will do, and what he has already done. He's already announced he's sending 17,000 more troops to Afghanistan, bringing the total to nearly 40,000. Not that this comes as any surprise: his entire critique of the Bushian foreign policy during the campaign was that we've been fighting the wrong war: that we had to get out of Iraq so we could occupy and pacify Afghanistan, and make a proper job of it. He advocated going into Pakistan, and outflanked the Republicans on the right.

Democrats attacked Republicans for underestimating the number of troops it would take to topple Saddam and set up a full-fledged, multi-year occupation, and there was that controversy over General Eric Shinseki, the former army chief of staff who resigned after contradicting the official administration estimate and testifying that we'd need at leas a couple of hundred thousand instead of Rumsfeld's fifty-thousand or so. The Democrats made Shinseki into a hero, but one wonders if they'll ask him about Afghanistan. He's liable to answer half a million.

Oh, but we're going to do it with the help of our allies: NATO is going to take on extra added importance, once again, just as it did in the Clinton era, as the favored instrument of US military aggression. That archaic alliance of nations spawned during the cold war as a defensive shield against advancing communism, is now venturing into the former Soviet heartland as a would-be conqueror. Plunging into the Caucasus region, admitting Georgia and perhaps even Azerbaijan, the gateway to the oil riches of central Asia – NATO is going to be our spearhead, not only in Afghanistan but throughout the Eurasian crescent extending from Gdansk, in the north to Tbilisi, in the south, and then eastward to Afghanistan, the graveyard of empires.

That's the plan, anyway, but the Democrats' "multilateral" approach to the problem of how to police the world, and maintain and extend the American empire, has certain problems. To begin with, the economic crunch doesn't allow for the luxury of imperialism, and the Europeans are in an even worse position that we are. Secondly, sending troops overseas to fight America's wars and occupy foreign countries is wildly unpopular in Europe, and the political costs of supporting the NATO effort in a substantial way might be too high as the Afghan war heats up.

The Europeans, too, have more respect for history, having suffered from an excess of it; perhaps they'll remember the fate of the previous would-be conquerors of the proud Afghan people: the Russians, the British, the Golden Horde, and even Alexander the Great. They all failed, and the bones of their centurions are dust beneath the feet of a warrior people. In that kind of terrain, against that kind of enemy, there is no such thing as victory – there is only a question of how long it will take for them to drive us out – or whether we go bankrupt before that happens, and be forced to withdraw. The Europeans, with their keen sense of history, know this, and I doubt very much that they'll be lured into sending large numbers of their armed forces into Afghanistan.

So you thought with the exit of the Bush administration, and the entry into Washington of Obama the prince of peace, that a new era would dawn and we'd be rid of the warmaking policies of a deranged White House? No way. We are in for more of the same, albeit marketed under a more reasonable rubric. Obama made this clear in his very first major foreign policy speech, delivered at Camp Lejeune before an audience of marines.

When it comes to Iraq, said Obama, he's taking the "centrist," moderate position:

"To this very day, there are some Americans who want to stay in Iraq longer, and some who want to leave faster." So let's just forget the campaign promises, and see how Obama's announcement conflicts with what he said he would do.

During the campaign he said he'd get us out of Iraq within 16 months – now his story is that it will three months longer than he promised. We are being told it will completed by the end of August 2010, 19 months after Obama's inauguration. And even that is not carved in stone: Like any good self-described "pragmatist," Obama and his advisors have always said his plan for Iraq is subject to revision due to "conditions on the ground" – which means, it can be altered, ditched, or even entirely reversed at any moment between now and 2011. That Obama is playing both sides of the aisle is underscored by a spokesman for New York Rep. John McHugh, the ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, who said that the President "assured [McHugh] he will revisit the tempo of the withdrawal, or he will revisit the withdrawal plan if the situation on the ground dictates it. ... The president assured him that there was a Plan B."

No sooner had Obama made his announcement of the war's end, than NBC's Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszewski reported that

"Military commanders, despite this Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government that all U.S. forces would be out by the end of 2011, are already making plans for a significant number of American troops to remain in Iraq beyond that 2011 deadline, assuming that Status of Forces Agreement agreement would be renegotiated. And one senior military commander told us that he expects large numbers of American troops to be in Iraq for the next 15 to 20 years."

Of course, to anyone who was reading the fine print of his policy proposals during the campaign –- as oppose to imbibing sound bits, and getting high on his coolness – this comes as no surprise.

They key to understanding the extent and nature of Obama's betrayal on the issue of the war lies in the fact that this alleged "withdrawal" will be back-loaded. Instead of one combat brigade per month, our force posture in Iraq will boil down to essentially the same as it would have been had Bush stayed in office. The plan is that troops will start leaving Iraq in large number only around next summer, at a pace to be left up to the field commanders.

This is key because it gives Obama plenty of space and opportunity to freeze or even reverse the withdrawal, under pressure from the Republicans, at the insistence of the military, or due to some unforeseen – but totally unsurprising – event that catalyzes the War Party once more and gives fresh impetus to our military efforts abroad – perhaps a terrorist attack Iraq, nearby in Kuwait – or in the United States.

The real kicker is that this so-called withdrawal – laden as it is with so many contingencies, conditions, and amendatory clauses – is not really a withdrawal at all. Because even after what is now called the "drawdown," there will still be 50,000 troops remaining in the country – to train, assist, and accompany Iraqi armed forces as they go after the terrorists-of-the-week.

It's interesting how Obama uses language, here, to give himself some kind of cover: the force is no longer called "residual." Now it's a "transition force." But no matter what you call it, it's still an occupation force – and it will continue to operate, says Obama, until the last day of 2011. At that point, Obama assures us that we're leaving, for sure, totally and without any "transitional" or "residual" force – except, maybe not. Because if you look at the Status of Forces Agreement, recently signed by the US and Iraq, it calls for a complete US withdrawal and yet reserves the right of the Iraqi government to "request" that we intervene. As the Status of Forces Agreement puts it:

"When any external or internal danger emerges against Iraq or an aggression upon it violates its sovereignty, its political stability, the unity of its land, water, and airspace or threatens its democratic system or its elected establishments and according to the request of the Iraqi government, the two parties will immediately start strategic talks and according to what they will agree on between them the United States will undertakes the appropriate measures that include diplomatic, economic, military or any other measure required to deter this threat."

Any US presence or military operations within Iraq, after the December 31, 2011, will be strictly "temporary," the authors of the agreement assure us. Yet everything is temporary: nothing is forever. Somehow, I'm not reassured….

[...]

Surprise, surprise. Why is it all of us who were warning Obongo would be a warmongering neocon are being proven right time and time again now that he is in office? All those who insisted Obama was going to "change" U.S. foreign policy and bring the troops home, including most of the Obamaniacs on here, now have zero credibility.

The Obamabots now think the war and endless occupation is cool. It is groovy, it is keen. Fucking idiots.

Ive been saying this since Obama anounced he was running for president. If he didnt conform to established doctrine he would never have become president.

Originally Posted by Defensor

Obama's War
Liberal interventionism in the age of Obama

Surprise, surprise. Why is it all of us who were warning Obongo would be a warmongering neocon are being proven right time and time again now that he is in office? All those who insisted Obama was going to "change" U.S. foreign policy and bring the troops home, including most of the Obamaniacs on here, now have zero credibility.

Two things: First, what's wrong with neo-cons? And, secondly, the invasion of Iraq wasn't disasterous at all! Where do you get that idea?

Originally Posted by llamaman

Two things: First, what's wrong with neo-cons? And, secondly, the invasion of Iraq wasn't disasterous at all! Where do you get that idea?

Neocons are lying pieces of filth that should be locked up for the crimes committed under their name.

Iraq is an illegal war, the occupation is highly illegal, where do you get your trash, neocon?

Originally Posted by michaelr

The Obamabots now think the war and endless occupation is cool. It is groovy, it is keen. Fucking idiots.

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