Thread: What are the polls really saying

I took a little time to look at what is a pointed out by the polls. I looked at "Real Clear" since it is a poll of polls and therefore is the best average.

Most States are polling the same way they did in 2000 and 2004. Which reduces the "toss up and leaners" to 12 states. If one considers historic patterns, Minnesota and New Mexico will likely go to Obama. This leaves 10, all of which have voted republican in the last to elections. In order for McCain to win he will have to make a clean sweep of these states. Virginia has Obama at +8.1, Georgia has McCain at +6.8 and Colorado has Obama at +5.8. All of the other states poll within their margin of error, (although most tend slightly toward Obama). Taken as a whole, these 10 states have an average plus Obama margin of just 1.49%.

This is a tight race, and unless something ELSE happens it's gonna go right down to the wire.

My issue with the polls......................is that I don't believe them either. I am not overly familiar with RCP, but are they unbiased? I mean CNN tells me that Obama is up by 11 points and 3 minutes later Fox tells me that Obama is only up by 4-5 points. It all seems to be spin.
I think the bottom line of what the polls may tell you is this. The larger the gap between Obama and McCain the more left the source leans and vice versa. But that might just be my opinion, idk.

Originally Posted by metheron

My issue with the polls......................is that I don't believe them either. I am not overly familiar with RCP, but are they unbiased? I mean CNN tells me that Obama is up by 11 points and 3 minutes later Fox tells me that Obama is only up by 4-5 points. It all seems to be spin.
I think the bottom line of what the polls may tell you is this. The larger the gap between Obama and McCain the more left the source leans and vice versa. But that might just be my opinion, idk.

There are legitimate polls like Rasmussen and then there are unscientific "tallies" from readers which mean they are garbage.

CNN and Fox polls are meaningless.

The fact that Warner is gonna wipe the floor in Virginia for his Senate seat (I actually had to google to find out who he was running against) it gives Virginia a strong DEM favor.

How is Nader doing in the polls?

Originally Posted by justoneman

There are legitimate polls like Rasmussen and then there are unscientific "tallies" from readers which mean they are garbage.

CNN and Fox polls are meaningless.

So you believe Rasmussen is above the fray and legit? Are there any others? What about RCP, the poll you like to use? Do you believe that to be unbiased?

Originally Posted by metheron

So you believe Rasmussen is above the fray and legit? Are there any others? What about RCP, the poll you like to use? Do you believe that to be unbiased?

RCP is not a poll it is an averager of other polls. There are some reall BS polls in the mix but they get averaged out a bit. I think RCP is the clearest picture of general across the board, popular vote.

Originally Posted by metheron

My issue with the polls......................is that I don't believe them either. I am not overly familiar with RCP, but are they unbiased? I mean CNN tells me that Obama is up by 11 points and 3 minutes later Fox tells me that Obama is only up by 4-5 points. It all seems to be spin.
I think the bottom line of what the polls may tell you is this. The larger the gap between Obama and McCain the more left the source leans and vice versa. But that might just be my opinion, idk.

I think some of what has happened in polling is people are finally getting either wise to or tired of the pollsters and the polls themselves. I think in many cases people don't say how they truthfully feel because they find themselves thinking that the person asking them has no business asking them how they are going to vote. There is also a certain amount of people out there, and I might include myself in that group, that may think "let me see if I can mess up their poll" and give wrong information. Then there is also a group of people who are more non-confrontational and not the type of people that would hang out here at PH and when asked who they support will give the answer that will best allow them to avoid a political discussion or argument, regardless of what they actually feel.

I just think polls are not going to be nearly as accurate from 2004 into the future as they once were... but of course I could be wrong.

Originally Posted by justoneman

RCP is not a poll it is an averager of other polls. There are some reall BS polls in the mix but they get averaged out a bit. I think RCP is the clearest picture of general across the board, popular vote.

Fair enough, JOM, yet answer me this. If Rasmussen is unbiased, why are they not the clearest? Are they a local polling place in some region?

Originally Posted by metheron

Fair enough, JOM, yet answer me this. If Rasmussen is unbiased, why are they not the clearest? Are they a local polling place in some region?

It is very much an inexact science.