Thread: 5 reasons why McCain has pulled ahead

John McCain’s surge in the polls comes even as Barack Obama has inherited the most favorable Democratic environment since the Watergate era — an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war and a flagging economy.


Suddenly, though, Democrats have found themselves in a world turned upside down, where Republicans have the momentum from running on change — and the latest wunderkind of presidential politics.

Below are five trends showing up in polling that help explain the change.

1. McCain as a 'change agent'

Eight in 10 Americans say they believe the country is on the wrong track. Obama has built his campaign on the perception that he is both the personification of change and the man to enact it.

Even though McCain has spent decades in Washington and a member of his party is in the White House, recent polling shows that he has managed to successfully portray himself as a change agent and erode Obama’s brand in the process.

The Democratic firm Democracy Corps found that the public prefers Obama to bring “the right kind of change” as president by a 50 to 44 percent — down from his 16-point edge in mid-August.

This week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll asked “who can bring about needed change to Washington.” The public favored Obama by 12 points — down from 32 points in June.

CBS News polling this week found that 46 percent of voters believe McCain can change Washington — up from 28 percent in July.

The Obama campaign has taken notice. His stump speech now rips McCain as a phony reformer, and yesterday he launched a TV ad campaign and website highlighting McCain’s ties to lobbyists.

2. The center shifts: Independents move to McCain

Independent voters, and particularly white independent men, have leaned Republican in presidential races since 1980. But before the Republican convention, Gallup polling showed just 40 percent of independents favoring McCain.

Post-convention, that rose to 52 percent — and the increase in support was slightly greater among men than among women, which appears to undercut the idea that Sarah Palin has benefited the ticket by drawing women to it.

Before the Democratic convention, white women favored McCain by 7 points. After it, they favored him by 6. Following the Republican convention, McCain was winning white women by 11 points — a 4-point gain.

Before the Democratic convention, white men favored McCain by 20 points. After it, that margin shrunk to 13 points. Following Denver, white men favored McCain by 25 points — a 5-point gain.

A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll found that 62 percent of men have a favorable view of Palin, while just 53 percent of women view her favorably.

Though no Democrat has won a majority of white voters since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Obama cannot win unless he pulls back some of these white independent voters.



3. The economic gap narrows

James Carville, who coined the catchphrase “the economy, stupid” in 1992 while working as a strategist for Bill Clinton, frets that Obama is losing his ownership of the issue that has become voters’ foremost concern in recent months.

“I noticed the tightening on the economy,” Carville said. “And if it stays that way, I would be damn worried.”

When Democracy Corps asked voters last week which candidate would “do a better job” with the economy,” Obama had a 50 to 44 percent advantage—down from a 16-point edge in mid August.

Gallup this week shows a 3-point edge for Obama on the question of which candidate “can better handle the economy”—down from 16 points in August.

A recent internal Republican poll found that 30 percent of likely voters shop at Wal-Mart at least once a week. Obama retained a slim 45-42 edge with Wal-Mart women—but 64 percent of men in the group favored McCain against just 29 percent who preferred Obama.

4. Palin narrows the enthusiasm gap

The Republican base, once disenchanted, has returned with a vengeance since McCain’s surprise pick of the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

This week’s CBS News poll found that 53 percent of Obama voters said they were “enthusiastic” about Obama, up 5 points since before his party’s convention, and still better than the 42 percent of McCain supports who feel the same way. McCain’s support, though, is up 18 points since selecting Palin.

The NBC-Wall Street Journal poll found that only 12 percent of McCain’s supporters were “excited to be voting” for him in early August. This week 34 percent said they were excited — nearly a threefold increase.

Palin has played no small part in this GOP awakening. CBS found that fully 85 percent of McCain backers were “pleased” with the selection of Palin, compared to 65 percent of Obama supporters who said the same about his running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden.

And among independents, 46 percent have a favorable view of Palin while only 31 percent say the same of Biden.

While Democrats have continued to hit at Palin’s inexperience, only 36 percent of likely voters believe Palin lacks the proper experience while 47 percent said the same of Obama.

5. Democrats voter ID edge dulls

Democrats have been relying on their newfound advantage in party identification all year. Party ID remains the best single indicator of voter support.

Republicans began losing voters prior to the 2006 midterm elections that gave Democrats a functional majority in the Senate. But those voters straying from the fold were mostly becoming independents, not Democrats.

Democratic voter enrollment began to grow in 2007, even as the drop in Republican enrollment leveled off. Now, though, the dynamic appears to have shifted.

The week before the Republican convention, just 39 percent of voters said they leaned toward or identified themselves as Republicans. Following the convention, that number rose dramatically to 47 percent. Meanwhile the percentage of voters leaning toward or identifying themselves as Democrats dropped from 53 to 47 percent. Gallup notes that party ID shifts are not unusual after a convention.

Gallup also reports that the double-digit Democratic lead among voters who are asked which party they’d generically prefer to control Congress has disappeared and that the two parties are now effectively tied.

Quite an excellent critique Freckles. My compliments.

I agree with pretty much everything that you've said. My only commentary is that Obama must bow to his staff and supporters advice and begin to counter the embellishments and outright falsehoods predicated by McCain, Palin and their handlers. Obama can no longer count on the press to point out the Republican falsehoods. That doesn't mean that Obama needs to match blow for blow, only that he create an atmosphere of distrust in the Republican candidates and characterize their claim of being mavericks and reformers as just so much pandering and empty rhetoric.

Bottom line is that Obama can win this election if he can convince the electorate that McCain-Palin are little more than 4 more years of Bush, that he and Biden are sincerely interested in and capable of changing this country for the better, returning the US to a position of global respect and ending the war in Iraq in a sensible and honorable manner.

Originally Posted by freckles

John McCain’s surge in the polls comes even as Barack Obama has inherited the most favorable Democratic environment since the Watergate era — an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war and a flagging economy.

For Barak Obama it would be the most favorable Democratic environment since Watergate but that has been negated not by any virtues McCain/Palin posess but by world class Karl Rove playbook smear from the McCain campaign...and! Palin's dramatic effect on the female vote.

When Hillary was attracting votes that were viewed as "because she's a woman" votes, I remember a remarkable amount of critcism being leveled against anyone who would vote for that reason from Republicans. Now, with Palin, Republicans are saying it's because she has a wonderful stance on the issues. Well...why did the women's vote bump exceed the male Palin bump considerably? Furthermore, why is that okay this time and not with Hillary?

Originally Posted by freckles

Suddenly, though, Democrats have found themselves in a world turned upside down, where Republicans have the momentum from running on change — and the latest wunderkind of presidential politics.

Holy crap Freckles. That explains alot. Just look at these photos of me and my Liberal buddies!

Originally Posted by freckles

1. McCain as a 'change agent'
2. The center shifts: Independents moved to McCain/Palin along with small towners
3. The economic gap narrows
4. Palin narrows the enthusiasm gap
5. Democrats voter ID edge dulls

Here are the real reasons,
1. McCain/Palin unveiled the "change" philosophy 2 weeks ago to avoid loosing in a "can't beat em', join em'" maneuver.
2. Evangelical Republican women become active and move to Palin.
3. Palin creates excitement amongst Republicans during the RNC Convention.
4. By turning on George Bush, a man 99% of Republicans voted for twice.
5. Working the "change" philosophy they stole from the Obama campaign into the Convention with the Maverick twist added to appear less "borrowed".

5 reasons why McCain has pulled ahead - Yahoo! News

I should have included my link. I didn't think someone actually thought I wrote this.

I disagree:
Obama attacked Palin's lack of experience which perversely highlighted his own lack of experience, particularly executive experience.
Obama stiffed Hillary on his VP pick which created an opening that McCain exploited.
Obama's ads and conduct have been so elitist and arrogant that he made even McCain look good.

I don't see a rush towards McCain but there is a rush away from Obama.

[quote=freckles;687657]I should have included my link. I didn't think someone actually thought I wrote this."


Hmmm.

Can someone explain why the Democrats, with a 100 year proven record of almost always doing exactly the wrong thing on the economy become seen as the saviors of the economy merely because there's a bunch of Republicans now acting like the Democrats always have?

Originally Posted by Freedom for All

Can someone explain why the Democrats, with a 100 year proven record of almost always doing exactly the wrong thing on the economy become seen as the saviors of the economy merely because there's a bunch of Republicans now acting like the Democrats always have?

Sure. It's because, the Democrats are now MORE fiscally conservative than the Republicans are!

Really - they've SWITCHED PLACES.

Consider: Twenty years ago, or back in the Reagan days, you would have been right. But now, that's an old model - it's no longer valid. Now, the exact OPPOSITE is happening - it's the Republicans who're spending us blind and voting against EVERY kind of spending limit while borrowing everything in sight, and it's the Democrats who have PayGo and want to balance the budget and reduce the debt and the deficit. The Republi-Cons don't even seem to CARE about those things anymore, they're off in never-never land about useful stuff like gay marriage and creationism.

Seems to me, that what we're really seeing here, is a role reversal.

So, I'm going to apply today's model, instead of an antiquated model. I'm going to try to base my voting decisions on what's REALLY going on, not what happened forty years ago.

Look around, pal. The "evil" Dems are the Blue Dogs - those are the ones you want to be "really furious" at. The rest of 'em, meh... they're mostly harmless.

Obama's taxation of savings plan puts him squarely in the McGovern wing of the Democratic party so I agree with FFA on the presidential candidate as to perceptions of congressional Dems, to each his own.