REAGAN REVOLUTION Bush's Tax Cuts
A Form of National Insanity
By ROBERT FREEMAN
Insanity, said Albert Einstein, is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different
results. By this measure, the latest Bush tax cuts qualify as certifiably insane.
Where have we seen this deranged fiscal strategy before? Remember Ronald Reagan and Supply
Side Economics? In the early 1980s, Reagan promised the nation that if we lowered tax rates on
the wealthy, the economy would grow so much the federal budget would be balanced "within
three years, maybe even two."
Sober people were skeptical-and rightly so. Reagan's Republican opponent for the 1980
presidential election, George H.W. Bush called it "voodoo economics." His own Budget Director,
David Stockman, called it a "Trojan horse," a scam intended really to funnel more money to the
already rich. Stockman was quickly dismissed.
The results, we now know, were a disaster. In 1982, the first full year after the tax cuts were
enacted, the economy actually shrank 2.2%, the worst performance since the Great Depression.
And the effect on the federal budget was catastrophic.
Jimmy Carter's last budget deficit was $77 billion. Reagan's first deficit was $128 billion. His
second deficit exploded to $208 billion. By the time the "Reagan Revolution" was over, George
H.W. Bush was running an annual deficit of $290 billion per year.
Yearly deficits, of course, add up to national debt. When Reagan took office, the national debt
stood at $994 billion. When Bush left office, it had reached $4.3 trillion. In other words, the
national debt had taken 200 years to reach $1 trillion. Reagan's Supply Side experiment
quadrupled it in the next 12 years.
Is there anything to compare this to? When Bill Clinton took office he intentionally reversed the
Supply Side formula, raising taxes on the wealthy and reducing them on the lowest wage earners.
Supply Side true believers predicted the arrival of the Apocalypse. Bob Dole said the stock
market would collapse. Newt Gingrich said the world would fall into another Great Depression.
What actually happened?
Between 1992 and 2000, the U.S. economy produced the longest sustained economic expansion
in U.S. history. It created more than 18 million new jobs, the highest level of job creation ever
recorded. Inflation fell to 2.5% per year compared to the 4.7% average over the prior 12 years.
Real interest rates fell by over 40% producing the greatest housing boom ever. Overall economic
growth averaged 4.0% per year compared to 2.8% average growth over the 12 years of the
Reagan/Bush administrations. Most impressively, Clinton reversed the mammoth deficits of the
Supply Side years, turning them into surpluses. He used these surpluses to begin paying down
the national debt.
By virtually every meaningful measure-employment, growth, inflation, interest rates, investment,
deficits and debt-the economy performed better once the Supply Side experiment was terminated
and replaced with a more honest economic policy where we actually pay our bills as we go.
Continued at:
Robert Freeman: Bush's Tax Cuts: a Form of National Insanity
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