To be fair, the stimulus checks are doing what they were intended to do. They are keeping us out of a textbook defined recession by encouraging people to spend money, which is why the economy has grown instead of contracted over the past couple months. And of course, when we start to see the negative side effects of this free money, they'll find some other scapegoat for our problems, and hope we forget what $150B infusion of cash has done to the dollar. And I'm not talking about just a $9 spike in oil. We haven't seen anything close to bad yet. My optimistic outlook is that by summer of 2010, we'll be seeing oil at $200-$250/barrel. My pessimistic side is screaming $300 by next summer.
It's kind of like the foreclosure problem. I have talked to many people who are convinced that poor banking regulation is to blame for all the foreclosures. They fail to realize that when you drop the interest rate to 1% and hold it there for a period of time, banks are going to be very interested in lending money to people who they probably shouldn't, and people are going to borrow more than they can really afford to pay back. Once the rates go back up and the inflation (due to artifically low interest rate) catches up with people, you have to expect a massive number of foreclosures. Giving the excuse that it was poor regulation of lenders simply gives a convenient excuse to bail people out. And rewarding people for poor choices is not a very good strategy for building a successful nation.



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