Thread: Clinton's flimsy Popular Vote argument

These McCainiacs for Clinton vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary, but in the general election they say they will choose John McCain -- even if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.
In all, over the past six primaries, they have cast about 362,000 of Clinton's 3.6 million votes. They're having a major impact -- without them, Clinton would not have won Indiana earlier this month.

My numbers come from a question in the exit poll survey which asks all voters to say who they would vote for in both a McCain-Clinton contest and in a McCain-Obama contests. Based on the answers to those questions, the exit poll data shows Clinton received the following votes in each state (rounded to the nearest 500):

• Pennsylvania: 71,500 (6% of her total)
• Indiana: 83,500 (13% of her total)
• North Carolina: 106,000 (16% of her total)
• West Virginia: 24,500 (10% of her total)
• Kentucky: 61,500 (13% of her total)
• Oregon: 14,500 (4% of her total)

I calculated the votes using the following formula:

[Total number of votes in primary] * [% of voters who say they would support McCain over Clinton] * [% of McCain supporters who voted for Clinton]

In all, Clinton's total of 362,000 votes from McCain supporters easily dwarfed the 120,000 votes Barack Obama received.
What this means is that over the past month alone, John McCain's supporters have helped Hillary Clinton narrow Barack Obama's overall "popular vote" lead by nearly a quarter-million voters.

McCainiacs cast 362,000 votes for Clinton in past month - The Jed Report

If this math is sound, then this is yet another (big) nail in the coffin for Clinton.

Originally Posted by Ronin Tetsuro

McCainiacs cast 362,000 votes for Clinton in past month - The Jed Report

If this math is sound, then this is yet another (big) nail in the coffin for Clinton.

the big date is may 31. thats when the dnc decides what to do with fl and mi. i think no matter what they do, it will only GIVE obama the nom. they have to give him SOME of the delegates, and hes so close, that with the remaining primaries, and whatever delegates he'd get from fl and mi, it would put him over what he needs.

This is only one part of the equation, of course.

What about the number of people who voted for Clinton, who will vote for McCain if Obama is nominated? (And vice versa.)

What about the number of people who voted for Clinton, who will stay home in November if Obama is nominated? (And vice versa.)

What about the number of people who voted for Clinton, who will vote for a third-party "protest candidate" if Obama is nominated? (And vice versa.)

What about the number of people who voted for their candidate because they felt peer-pressured to do so (even or especially in a caucus environment) by members of the social group with which they identify?

Of course, the "popular vote" argument is kinda irrelevant anyway since you don't win the Democratic nomination on a popular vote, whether real or disputed or supplied by mischief-makers or peer pressure or whatever, any more than Gore won the 2000 general election due to the popular vote.

It's just one tool that Clinton is trying to use to sway superdelegates, but they don't seem to be fazed by it even if true, or any of her other arguments. Primarily they seem to be focused on "if we vote against the majority of pledged delegates then we are overriding the Will of the People, never mind the wacky rules for assigning pledged delegates, or the fact that we even exist as superdelegates and if the pledged delegates were all that really mattered like people say, we wouldn't be here."

I don't think there's any question Obama will get the nomination, at this point I don't think the DEMS could do it any other way. If Obama dosn't get teh nomination there will be hell to pay in the democrat party. Now, will Hillary quit? I don't know, she's going to be pissed.

The democrat party is going to have to give Hillary something, she's not going to accept defeat, not like this. The only thing I can see is a Hillary as VP, I don't think Obama want's this, but he may not have a choice.

Originally Posted by tiercel

This is only one part of the equation, of course.

What about the number of people who voted for Clinton, who will vote for McCain if Obama is nominated? (And vice versa.)

Nothing more than knee-jerk reactionism. The same thing happened in 2000, when McCain supporters were polled and most said they would not vote for Bush. This resulted in most voting for Bush, with about only 5% actually voting as they said.

What about the number of people who voted for Clinton, who will stay home in November if Obama is nominated? (And vice versa.)

Same thing.

What about the number of people who voted for Clinton, who will vote for a third-party "protest candidate" if Obama is nominated? (And vice versa.)

Same thing.

Of course, the "popular vote" argument is kinda irrelevant anyway since you don't win the Democratic nomination on a popular vote, whether real or disputed or supplied by mischief-makers or peer pressure or whatever, any more than Gore won the 2000 general election due to the popular vote.

Hillary suppirted the delegate system 100% before she fell behind. Mrs. Bill Clinton has no integrity or principle, and is a chameleon. She supports what benefits her.

The delegate system is indeed undemocratic. But it's only undemocratic to Hillary now.

Originally Posted by Notmyrealname

I don't think there's any question Obama will get the nomination, at this point I don't think the DEMS could do it any other way. If Obama dosn't get teh nomination there will be hell to pay in the democrat party. Now, will Hillary quit? I don't know, she's going to be pissed.

The democrat party is going to have to give Hillary something, she's not going to accept defeat, not like this. The only thing I can see is a Hillary as VP, I don't think Obama want's this, but he may not have a choice.

i might agree with you, but i also think that hrc is still fighting because she still has options. not good options, but options none-the-less. once those options are gone, which is coming soon, she will be the flat out loser, and there really won't be anything for her to argue about.

i think once shes lost, she just wants to be able to say, "ok i did EVERYTHING i could. i'm the loser, see ya later."

thats my hope anyway.

Originally Posted by Notmyrealname

The democrat party is going to have to give Hillary something, she's not going to accept defeat, not like this. The only thing I can see is a Hillary as VP, I don't think Obama want's this, but he may not have a choice.

And everyone knows if Hillary is the veep, Barack is as good as dead.

Originally Posted by Ronin Tetsuro

And everyone knows if Hillary is the veep, Barack is as good as dead.

Barack is doing good in the easy Democrat states, states that should be easy for Barack. When he gets the nomination he's going to have to convince America he's for real, I don't know if he can do it.

Originally Posted by Bluegrass

Hillary suppirted the delegate system 100% before she fell behind. Mrs. Bill Clinton has no integrity or principle, and is a chameleon. She supports what benefits her.

Amusing that you think Obama is different. Let's stick to the rules when we are talking about stripping Florida and Michigan of delegates... but when we are talking about superdelegates? You better not DARE vote against the pledged delegates, even though the rules allow for exactly that.

Of course, now that Obama is far enough ahead of Clinton in the total delegate count, he can afford some compromise on seating Florida and Michigan delegations, as long as any such arrangement leaves him ahead. (If he were only 50 delegates ahead of Clinton, do you think his tune would have changed?)

Originally Posted by Ronin Tetsuro

And everyone knows if Hillary is the veep, Barack is as good as dead.

Interestingly, "Ronin Tetsuro asserts" is not the same thing as "everyone knows." I've seen people argue the opposite, really. There is at least a simplistic logic in saying that having Clinton on the ticket would bring her voters back into the Dem fold faster and more completely for the general election than anything else. Though there are arguments against why Obama would want Clinton on his ticket, it is certainly not obvious that having her would spell instantaneous and irrevocable political doom for him.

Originally Posted by nickcuse

i think once shes lost, she just wants to be able to say, "ok i did EVERYTHING i could. i'm the loser, see ya later."

thats my hope anyway.

lol, that might happen and on the surface she might use those words exactly, but we're talking about Hillary Clinton losing the nomination of PRESIDENT. Believe me, the DEMS are going to have to pay.

This was a funny story I read about right after John Kerry lost the election, but the democrats took control of both houses. Don't ask for a source... it was right after the election and I don't even know where I read it.

There was a photo shoot for the new Majority Leaders of both houses, they wanted to show strength and unity of the party in their new positions. So they had them line up together in some large hall way in the captiol building. Well John Kerry thought he should be in the picture, because... well he was the losing candidate for President... he was important in his mind.... not important enough apparently.... they said Reid actually had to stop Kerry and ask him to leave, this photo was for the leadership. SNAP. How do you think that made Kerry feel? Do you think Hillary is just going to walk away.... really?