just going to post my two cents:
Polls really are meaningless in my opinion. Anyone can easily answer a 4 (strongly agree or support or a 1 (strongly disagree or support) and then the poll will be completely off. So, although by and large polls are accurate in their portrayl of who is going to win, there have been many times when the science behind polling is...suspect. the questions were phrased deceptively, there wasn't a high response rate, the polling wasn't as random as it could be, people could only be called on home phones and not cell phones, despite the fact that large amounts of people only use cell phones....etc.
What needs to be examined is the amount of institutional power that runs behind all of the candidates. When I speak of institutional power, I don't speak of any particular institution - I speak of the amount that people are willing to coalesce their time, work, and resources, behind a particular candidate.
Why is this a more accurate example of real power? Simply, because if someone really believed that guiliani was a worthwhile candidate, and a candidate that was worth their support, they would go out and help the campaign, or donate money, or join the guiliani PAC. Otherwise, if they support a person without really caring about that person in regards to the amount that they are willing to essentially "take up arms" for them...well, I can't really see that happening on a mass scale. Theres not enough people that are willing to just put aside their own feelings and go with the flow. Any candidate that thrives on the 'go with the flow' crowd will quickly be ideologically destroyed by one who doesn't.
Lastly, this is mostly directed at Colin. In America, I know that you are a Canadian, but there is a big amount of people that are against the elitist feel of Washington. Take a look at how much of america was founded - first the settlers came to the town, then the various social services (IE shop owners), and then finally, with sometimes a far time removed, came the government and its institutions. Contrast this to Canada, where it was often the case where the government went to an area first and the people there surrounded the institutions of government. This points to a difference in culture, and one that could potentially support the nomination of an 'anti elitist' candidate.



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