Thread: GOP Race Remains Wide Open

rasmussenreports.com
Tue Oct 23, 12:44 PM ET

In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, the more you look at the numbers, the more you realize how wide open the race really is.

During this past week, many pundits noted how well Mike Huckabee did in the Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa caucus. Far fewer commented on the fact that six-out-of-ten Likely Caucus Participants say they might change their mind between now and January 3. Think about that for a moment. How can anybody really be ahead or behind if 60% of the participants are willing to change their mind.

Other polling from last week shows that, on a national basis, John McCain is still struggling to stay in double digits among Likely Republican Primary Voters. His negative ratings among the GOP base remain far too high for someone hoping to capture the party's endorsement. But, in general election polling, McCain is in a dead heat with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. In those match-ups, he's doing better than any of the other GOP hopefuls.

Where does that leave the race? First, it leaves Republicans less optimistic than Democrats about their chances of winning the White House. Less than a quarter of Republican voters think any of their team's candidates are Very Likely to win it all in November 2008. Among Democrats, 50% believe Hillary Clinton is Very Likely to win.

Second, it shows that the months of campaigning have done little to sort out the prospects of leading candidates. At this point, it's fairly easy to note that Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Duncan Hunter are not going to capture the nomination.

It's also fairly easy to suggest that Mike Huckabee and John McCain are very, very long shots. It is hard to see them getting the nomination without major mistakes from all the other campaigns. But, given the volatility of the race, it's not quite possible to rule them out.

Among the top three candidates—Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney—it remains much easier to show why each of them should lose the nomination rather than win it. But, barring a major surprise, one of those three will be the Republican nominee in 2008.

In some ways, this week's report is similar to the analysis from last week. At that time, Rasmussen Reports noted that Fred Thompson's first debate performance did nothing to clarify matters. He didn't steal the show or fall flat on his face. As a result, the race remains as murky as ever.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday.

Those results are based upon a four-day rolling average and provide a quick update on the race.

In addition to the daily tracking poll, Rasmussen Reports provides weekly results to provide a longer-term overview of the race. These updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys. Results are reported based upon interviews conducted on the seven days up to and including the night before posting.

For the seven days ending October 21, 2007 show that Rudy Giuliani earns 25% of the vote while Fred Thompson attracts 19%. Mitt Romney is at 15%, John McCain is the favorite for 12% and Mike Huckabee is at 8%. Ron Paul is at 2%, Tom Tancredo at 1% and Duncan Hunter's support rounds up to 1%. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided (review history of weekly results). Sam Brownback was included as a candidate for the first four days of the poll, but not the final three days. His support, less than 1% of the full week's total, was added to the undecided total.

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters. This includes both Republicans and those independents likely to vote in a Republicans Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

I figure this oughta make the GOPers on the board squabble!

Originally Posted by Shadowman

I figure this oughta make the GOPers on the board squabble!

What are you talking about? Ron Paul has won every debate.

It's actually nice to see the right head a bit back towards the middle wwith Guiliani's numbers. Restores my faith in America for at least only sufferring from temporary insanity, rather than permanent.

Originally Posted by Think for myself

What are you talking about? Ron Paul has won every debate.

It's actually nice to see the right head a bit back towards the middle wwith Guiliani's numbers. Restores my faith in America for at least only sufferring from temporary insanity, rather than permanent.

I still completely fail to see why anyone thinks Thompson is magic. Or even Reagan-esque. What's up with that? He's cardboard.

Of course the GOP erace is wide open, why wouldn't it be? There hasn't been one primary yet.

Originally Posted by Migi e!

Of course the GOP erace is wide open, why wouldn't it be? There hasn't been one primary yet.

Media pundits like to predict. I'm posting their predictions. Like it kills anyone to discuss...

Originally Posted by Shadowman

Media pundits like to predict. I'm posting their predictions. Like it kills anyone to discuss...

Ok, so I showed you the folly of the pundits.

Originally Posted by Migi e!

Ok, so I showed you the folly of the pundits.

Everyone knows the folly of the pundits. As though people on the PH boards don't like to make their own predictions and debate other folk's predictions. It's sport for the politically obsessed.

I don't think the polls are properly representing Ron Paul because they aren't set up to. There has been a paradigm shift and the polls are lagging behind because the model they are using is antiquated.

We'll see what happens after November 5th with Ron Paul. If they raise the money I think they will these polling companies are going to have to take a look at their polling techniques.

Originally Posted by Shadowman

Everyone knows the folly of the pundits. As though people on the PH boards don't like to make their own predictions and debate other folk's predictions. It's sport for the politically obsessed.

Ah, well why didn't you say so?
The GOP race is still wide open & i believe the Dem race isn't as closed as the Clintons would have people believe.