Thread: Obstacles I see to future progress in Iraq.

In looking at the current situation in Iraq, we see that deaths for American troops and bodies found executed in the streets are down following the troop surge. Apparently, the security plan seems to be working, however it is far too early to tell and even if the plan does work it will not bring peace to Iraq. In order for peace to return the Coalition forces need to deal with seven problems that I can see of:


1) Iranian material and monetary support for Shiite militias such as Moqtada Al-Sadr-The links between Shiite militias and Iran are clear. Moqtada Al Sadr has used Iran as a safe haven in the past and Iran has long been suspected of interfering in the region, as witnessed by the recent abduction of 15 Brittish sailors. One could see that if Iran is indeed interfering, then there are several possible reasons for it. It could be that Iran does not want a pro-American government right next door. It could be that it wants the American forces to be so overwhelmed by the violence as to require Iranian assistance in quelling the violence n exchange for allowing Iran to pursue it's nuclear program, which Western governments contend is for producing nuclear weapons. Or it could be that certain rogue extremist elements of the Iranian government are involved and the head doesnt entirley know what the hand is doing.
2) Foreign fighters spilling across Syrian-Iranian border to fight Coalition forces and disrupt peace-Almost all of the civilian deaths in Iraq are caused by car bombings and suicide bombings of foreign fighters. These foreign fighters range from Al Qaida to similar groups. Most of the groups are Sunni, and have concentrated their attacks on Shiite civilians, who make up 80% of the country, and American forces. When the insurgents attack civilians, it creates an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. It makes civilians unwilling to leave their homes or give assistance to American soldiers out of fear for their lives. If the citizens of Iraq are unwilling to leave their homes they will not go buy things at markets and other stores, which slows economic growth. If they are unwilling to give help to American forces, the insurgents are almost impossible to beat, as historically, guerilla restance fighters have always depended on no small part on the civilian population to conceal them and shelter and feed them.
3) Sunni-Shiite competition for resources- Most of the wealthy citizens of Iraq were the minority Sunnis, who prospered under Saddam Hussein's regime, while the Shiite population was persecuted and oppressed. Now that Saddam is no longer ruler and there is a Shiite majority goverment in Bagdahd, Sunnis are trying to regain or hold on to the wealth they once had, while Shiites are trying to take what they think is theirs.
4) Broken infrastructure and a weak economy- Many areas of Iraq, especially on the outskirts of Bagdahd only recive 6-8 hours of running water and electricity, some even less. The police force is corrupt and inexperienced , taking bribes and turning a blind eye to Shiite militia caused violence, and is infiltrated by the Sunni insurgency. The economy is stagnant due to high unemployment, with the only new jobs com ing out that dont require a particularily high education being the ones that involve doing work for the American millitary, joining the Iraqi police or Army, or working with millitary contracters, all of which are seen in the eyes of insurgents as " Cooperating with the infidels and crusaders". Anyone known by the insurgency to be involved in this work are subjected to intimidation, torture, and murder. This means that noone wants to do the jobs that are available, which means no economic growth, which means the average Iraqi does not get richer, which means they cannot start their own bussinesses which ultimatley means no new jobs!!!And that is currently the visious cylcle the country is in.
5) Weak and unpopular government- The new government of Iraq is dominated primarily by Shiites. Sunnis are complaining of favoritism and exclusion of Sunnis from government. Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki has been promising reform for many months now, but sop far there has been no visible effort to make good on those promises.
6) Tribal loyalties-based culture- Arab countries have a culture of loyalty to your home tribe. Whenever the American millitary makes a deal with one tribe, the other tribes are sure to reject it. This makes it impossible to find a solution that everyone can agree upon and if the tribes arent happy, they wont assist the Americans in battling insurgents.
7) Centuries old religous hatred- There is a great deal of animosity between the Sunnis and Shiites of Iraq that has existed for hundreds of years through out the Arab world, similar to that between Protestants and Catholics. One event that demonstrates this hatred and what it has done was the 2006 February Aksirya Shrine bombing in Samara by Sunni insurgents. The this shrine was considered one of the most holy and sacred places in Shiite Islam. Before this, the Shiite population had endured and tolerated bombings and attacks upon them by Sunni insurgents. However this was the straw that broke the camel's back. Following the bombing of the shrine, Shiite death squads seized 9 Sunni civilians, doused them in kerosene, and set them ablaze. This caused futher retalition by Sunnies which caused the conflict to escalate. Before this moment, the Bush administration says, iraq was moving in the right direction. A government had been formed and elections had taken place. This bombing made Iraq even more dangerous.














I have thought up possible solutions to some of the problems, which I will post later. Gotta go for now.

I pray that this security surge works well enough to get our men and women back home soon. We are going to need them in Iran.

Unfortunately you cannot deny or eradicate the animosity that easy. In light of the way the Muslim world generally feels towards the West, I cannot imagine that the matter will ever resolve itself entirely. In the end no matter how much the West pretends that agreements have been reached, none of them will remain intact for long.

It takes more than years to eradicate hatred from a nation, it takes generations, and usually by that time a new President has risen to power, and the cycle of hatred starts all over again.

It's a Catch-22 situation. Even if America isn't involved, the civil war's will continue, and as long as America is involved the war will continue. On top of this they are used as the terrorists 'raison d'être' for their actions, and in my opinion American authorities aren't ignorant of this fact, they just don't care about the reprecussions of their involvment in other country's.

Originally Posted by Kanabi

It takes more than years to eradicate hatred from a nation, it takes generations, and usually by that time a new President has risen to power, and the cycle of hatred starts all over again.

It takes more than generations too. Islam has been fighting the west for 1400 years (roughly).

Originally Posted by sid2112

It takes more than generations too. Islam has been fighting the west for 1400 years (roughly).

They are more interested in fighting eachother. All we have to do is get out of the way. Problem is they have most of the world's oil and we don't need a destabilised supply...So we go in and try to stop them fighting or oppressing each other, and we become the enemy to both sides... As long as we need oil, there will never be an end to American involvement in the ME...

Originally Posted by Latherty

They are more interested in fighting eachother. All we have to do is get out of the way. Problem is they have most of the world's oil and we don't need a destabilised supply...So we go in and try to stop them fighting or oppressing each other, and we become the enemy to both sides... As long as we need oil, there will never be an end to American involvement in the ME...

Exactly, thats why I support alternative energy. Oil is costing us too many lives.

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

In looking at the current situation in Iraq, we see that deaths for American troops and bodies found executed in the streets are down following the troop surge. In order for peace to return the Coalition forces need to deal with seven problems that I can see of:
(etc)

Quite a good summation - but can you support your assertion that most of the insurgent activity is by foreigners? I think you will find this is a myth...

Originally Posted by sid2112

It takes more than generations too. Islam has been fighting the west for 1400 years (roughly).

Islam has never fought anyone. Some groups of stupid humans interpreting it have. You find the same extremists among Christians.

Originally Posted by Latherty

Quite a good summation - but can you support your assertion that most of the insurgent activity is by foreigners? I think you will find this is a myth...

Quite true, the insurgency is mostly an Iraqi thing. The problem I have is Iranian backing of the insurgency.

Originally Posted by Latherty

Quite a good summation - but can you support your assertion that most of the insurgent activity is by foreigners? I think you will find this is a myth...

Says who?...........