Thread: Rank 19 / 33: Nevada

Nevada

Year	Rank	Winning %	% Margin	% Margin over National
2008	19 / 38	55.15%	+12.49%	+5.23%
2004	24 / 28	50.47%	+2.59%	+0.13%
2000	26 / 26	49.52%	+3.55%	+4.07%

Blue shading = DEM pick-up over the cycle before.
Redshading = GOP pick-up over the cycle before.

Nevada margin average, 1988-2008 (6 cycles): GOP+1.82%



NV county-by-county EXCEL spreadsheet
(raw totals for 2008 and 2004, margins, swings, % of state PV, countygrowth rate)


The partisan rankings for Ranking 19 (Nevada) from 2008 backwards inhistory to 1964 in Table-format (highlighted in yellow):

Rank	2008	Margin '08	2004	Margin - 04	2000	Margin '00	1996	Margin '96	1992	Margin '92
18 - 34	WI	13,90%	PA	2,50%	OR	0,44%	WA	12,54%	ME	8,33%
19 - 33	NV	12,49%	NH	1,37%	IA	0,31%	LA	12,07%	DE	8,20%
20 - 32	PA	10,31%	WI	0,38%	WI	0,22%	IA	10,34%	MI	7,40%
21 - 31	MN	10,24%	IA	0,67%	NM	0,06%	WI	10,33%	CT	6,43%
22 -30	NH	9,61%	NM	0,79%	FL	0,01%	NH	9,95%	IA	6,01%
23 - 29	IA	9,53%	OH	2,11%	NH	1,27%	PA	9,20%	TN	4,65%
24 - 28	CO	8,95%	NV	2,59%	MO	3,34%	OR	8,09%	LA	4,61%
25 - 27	VA	6,30%	CO	4,67%	OH	3,51%	NM	7,33%	WI	4,35%
26 - 26	OH	4,58%	FL	5,01%	NV	3,55%	OH	6,36%	CO	4,26%
27 - 25	FL	2,81%	MO	7,20%	TN	3,86%	MO	6,30%	KY	3,21%
28 - 24	IN	1,03%	VA	8,20%	AR	5,44%	FL	5,70%	NV	2,63%
29 - 23	NC	0,33%	AR	9,76%	AZ	6,28%	TN	2,41%	MT	2,51%
30 - 22	MO	0,13%	AZ	10,47%	WV	6,32%	AZ	2,22%	NJ	2,37%
31 - 21	MT	2,38%	NC	12,43%	LA	7,68%	NV	1,02%	OH	1,83%

1988	Margin '88	Rank	1984	Margin '84	1980	Margin '80	1976	Margin '76	1972	Margin '72	1968	Margin '68	1964	Margin '64
TX	12,60%	29 - 23	AL	22,26%	WA	12,34%	VA	1,34%	NV	27,36%	KY	6,14%	MT	18,38%
ND	13,06%	30 - 22	MT	22,30%	IA	12,70%	SD	1,48%	CO	28,01%	NV	8,16%	CA	18,32%
KS	13,23%	31 - 21	LA	22,60%	VA	12,72%	CA	1,78%	KY	28,60%	NH	8,18%	NV	17,16%
NJ	13,64%	32 - 20	IN	23,99%	NJ	13,42%	IL	1,97%	NH	29,12%	SC	5,79%	ND	16,09%
AR	14,18%	33 - 19	NC	24,00%	TX	13,86%	NJ	2,16%	AZ	31,26%	MT	9,01%	WY	13,12%
NC	16,26%	34 - 18	MS	24,39%	CA	16,78%	NM	2,47%	IN	32,77%	CO	9,14%	AR	12,66%
TN	16,34%	35 - 17	VA	25,19%	FL	17,02%	WA	3,88%	TX	32,96%	VT	9,22%	IN	12,42%
OK	16,65%	36 - 16	SD	26,47%	NM	18,18%	NV	4,36%	LA	36,97%	FL	9,60%	NC	12,30%
AL	19,30%	37 - 15	TX	27,50%	IN	18,35%	CT	5,17%	VA	37,72%	TN	3,83%	OK	11,49%
IN	20,16%	38 - 14	SC	27,99%	CO	24,00%	MI	5,39%	TN	37,95%	NC	8,25%	SD	11,22%
GA	20,25%	39 - 13	CO	28,32%	MT	24,39%	ND	5,85%	AR	38,11%	VA	10,87%	TN	11,01%
VA	20,50%	40 - 12	FL	30,66%	KS	24,56%	MT	7,44%	KS	38,15%	SD	11,31%	UT	9,73%
MS	20,82%	41 - 11	ND	31,04%	OK	25,53%	KS	7,55%	ID	38,20%	NM	12,10%	KS	9,03%
NV	20,94%	42 - 10	KS	33,67%	AK	27,94%	IN	7,62%	WY	38,54%	IA	12,19%	VA	7,36%
NE	20,96%	43 - 9	NV	33,88%	SD	28,83%	VT	11,20%	NC	40,58%	IN	12,30%	NE	5,21%
AZ	21,21%	44 - 8	AZ	33,88%	NH	29,39%	NH	11,28%	NE	41,00%	OK	15,70%	FL	2,30%
FL	22,36%	45 - 7	AK	36,79%	AZ	32,36%	CO	11,47%	UT	41,25%	ND	17,71%	ID	1,83%
WY	22,52%	46 - 6	NH	37,71%	WY	34,67%	AZ	16,57%	SC	42,66%	UT	19,42%	AZ	0,99%
AK	23,32%	47 - 5	OK	37,94%	NV	35,64%	WY	19,49%	FL	44,12%	AZ	19,76%	GA	8,25%

Trend: STRONGDEMOCRATIC


NV WIKI
NV Census Information
NV Census Profile map


Complete NV electoral raw data (Presidential)


NV Electoral Development (electors through history): 3 (1864-1980), 4 (1984-2000), 5 (2004-2008), 6 EV (2012- ).


The population of NV was 2,600,167 in 2008.
Population Density: 9.1 persons per square Km.
Electoral Vote Density: 520,033 persons per EV.



Nevada is the 19th most liberal state and the 33rd most conservative state, with a Democratic winning margin of +12.49% and having voted 5.23% more Democratic than the national margin in 2008. Nevada is one of the 9.25 Democratic „pick-up“ states from 2008, meaning, it shifted from the Republican column to the Democratic column.

NV was the 28th most conservative state in 2004, with a Republican winning margin of +2.59% and having voted 0.13% more Republican than the national margin in that year. NV was the 26th most conservative state in 2000, with a Republican winning margin of +3.55% and having voted 4.07% more Republicanthan the national margin in that year.

From 1904-2008, Nevada went for the GOP 14 times,for the DEMS 13 times.

Since1948 Nevada went for the GOP 10 times,for the DEMS 6times.

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I have already done an extensive county-by-county analysis of Nevada in 2009, in three parts plus supplemental data. In the analysis are:

-recent electoral statistics
-extensive background information
-county-for-county analysis (percentage, percentage margin, shift, pick-ups, tipping-point counties)
-maps
-quick mega-county study
-Conclusion.

In the supplemental material: an excel table of all the raw data, a 6 county special 48-year voting history analysis (also excel table), extra demographic data.

Goto these links to read the extensive report:

Nevada2008 – County by County
TheWest: extremes in geography, demographics and ideology




Part I


Part II


Part III


raw data


special 6 county 48-year voting history study



Supplemental to Nevada: DEMOGRAPHIC and ECONOMIC profile of Nevada (p.4,hispanic population)




Quick Census facts on Nevada

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Based on its voting record, from 1912-1972, NV was a perfect bellwether state for 60 years, having picked the winner 16 cycles in a row. It then missed the winner in 1976 and went for Ford instead of Carter. In the 8 cycles since 1980, NV has once again been a bellwether, so it is actually pretty much tied with OH for best bellwether status.

NV Superlatives	YEAR	Candidate	Winning %	Notes
GOP	1984	Reagan	65.84%
DEM	1936	Roosevelt, FD	72.81%
IND	1924	LaFollette	36.29%
---------------------			Winning Margin %
All-time “squeaker”	1996	Clinton	+1.02%

In Nevada, as of 2010, the Governor, Lt. Governor, 1 Senator and 2 of 3 congressional representatives are Republicans. The other Senator and the remaining Representative are Democrats. In the Nevada Legislature, the Democratic Party has a lean majority in the State Senate and a hypermajority in the State House.

Facit: Nevada has statistically become, a solid Democratic state, but is expected to be a battleground in 2012.

polling data goes here:

Nevada –DEM pick-up

Pollster	Date	Romney	Gingrich.	Paul	other	Huckabee	Trump	Palin	Cain	Bachmann	Perry
GSSG (R)	01/19/12	37.8 /49.3	---	---	---					---	---
Cannon Group	12/22/11	46 / 40	47 / 35	45 / 36	49 / 31 (Santorum) 49 / 30 (Huntsman)					50 / 27	51 / 31
PPP	10/27/11	46 / 46	49 / 46	47 / 43	---				49 / 46	49 / 41	51 / 41
PPP	08/03/11	47 / 46	---		---			51 / 39	48 / 39	50 / 40	49 / 40
PPP	04/28/11	43/ 46	46 / 42		42 / 34 / 20 (Obama / Romney / Trump) 44 / 30 / 21 (Obama / Huckabee / Trump)	45 / 43	47 / 41	50 / 39	---	---	---
PPP	01/07/11	47 / 46	51 / 40		----	51 / 41	---	52/39	---	---	---

Obama 2008 margin: +12.49
Bush 2004 margin: +2.59
GOPcombined margin average 1948-2004: +9.94

more polling date goes here.

VR data goes here.

2012 GOP nomination data goes here.

Ok, here are the caucus results links:


Politico.

Google.

CNN. (CNN projected delegate distribution: Romney 10, Gingrich 3, Paul 3, Santorum 2)


National Journal.

AP.

TPM.

I twittered the results for a while this time, just to see if I like it. It was a twittering experience.

twitter: bonncaruso (big surprise there, eh?)

It is now past 01:30 in the morning in NV, and only 5.8% of the precincts in Clark County are reporting. Overall, the caucus returns came in painfully slowly, but there are some general trends:

Less votes cast in a number of rural counties over '08: Carson City, Humbolt County,

Churchill, Mineral, Nye, Pershing, Storey, Elko, Lander (Lander took 4.5 hours to report 183 votes!)

Unless about 6,000 extra votes are cast in Clark County, the NV GOP is going to come in way under it's vote count from 2008. Furthermore, to not publish any Clark County results and make people wait in what should be an open-and-close type of thing will make people wonder if hanky-panky is going on in the Las Vegas GOP.

We do know that the state map has changed only slightly: Gingrich won little itty-bitty Mineral County - that is new. Paul won Nye county, just as he did in 2008, but he also picked-up neighboring Esmerelda county.

The one surprise was the increased turnout in Washoe County, which was originally incorrectly called for Gingrich, but which Romney won - and about 3,000 more votes were cast here, where the vote counts dropped in almost every other county.

Wait and see what happens in Clark County.


Clark County has barely reported in, 6 hours after the caucus was supposed to be over...

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Update, Sunday 10:00 EST. Clark County is now 50% in, and there are just lots less votes than four years ago:



With everything else in and more than half of Clark in, it's 24,813 votes total.

With 543 out of 1,075 precincts now in from Clark County, that's a total of 8,913 votes. Last time around, it was 23,844 votes.

As with FL, the GOP will not have a good a turnout here as in 2008.

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Update, 05 FEB 2012, 15:00 EDT:




Only 57% of precincts from Clark County are in - 16 hours after the caucuses in Clark County should have closed.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, wondering what is going on here. And the NV GOP is totall mum about this. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.......

Nevada GOP caucuses 2012
Preliminary results (100% reporting), compared to 2008: cold, hard statistics.

Nevada 2008	Caucus Results -FINAL-		Margin		Nevada 2012	Caucus Results -Preliminary-		Margin	Delegates (%)
Mitt Romney	22,646	51.10%	Romney +16,562 (+37.37%)		Mitt Romney	16,496	50.15%	Romney +9,540 (+29.00%)	14	100.00%
Ron Paul	6,084	13.73%			Newt Gingrich	6,956	21.15%		6
John McCain	5,650	12.75%			Ron Paul	6,175	18.77%		5
Mike Huckabee	3,616	8.16%			Rick Santorum	3,277	9.93%		3
Fred Thompson	3,519	7.94%			---	---	---		--
Rudy Giuliani	1,910	4.31%			---	---	---		--
Duncan Hunter	890	2.01%			---	---	---		--
Unallocated	-	-			---	---	---
TOTAL:	44,315	100.00%			TOTAL:	32,894	100.00%		28 (of 28)	100.00%

GOP Voter turnout, 2012 Caucuses:

32,894 / 471,292 = 6.98% VT (all GOP voters)
32,894 / 400,310 = 8.22% VT (all GOP ACTIVE voters)



GOP voter turnout, 2008 Caucuses:

44,315 / 482,487 = 9.18% VT (all GOP voters)
44,315 / 395,942 = 11.19% VT (all GOP ACTIVE voters)



Voter Turnout compared: 2012 over 2008:
all GOP voters: -2.20%
all GOP active voters: -2.97%
Raw vote count: -11,421 votes (-25.77% growth rate)

Summary

Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses with a majority win of 50.15% and a landslide +29.00% margin over Newt Gingrich, who took second place. This is Mr. Romney's first majority win of the GOP nomination contests thus far and also his largest winning margin to-date.

Romney's winning percentage from 2012 is only 0.95% less than his winning percentage from 2008, but his winning margin is 8.37% LESS. Reason: improved percentage for the second place winner.

Newt Gingrich won 21.15% of the vote. There are no statistics from 2008 to compare him with.

In spite of taking third place in 2012, where he had second place in 2008, Ron Paul actually increased his percentage (18.77% in 2012 over 13.73% in 2008) and number of raw votes over 2008. And he is projected to get one more delegate than in 2008.

Rick Santorum won 9.93% of the vote. There are no statistics from 2008 to compare him with.

11,421 LESS caucus votes were cast in 2012 over 2008. That is a growth rate of -25.77%: in other words, GOP caucus attendance shrunk by a quarter, in spite of the fact that there are more active registered Republicans in 2012 than there were at the time of the caucuses in 2008. (See: GOP VT statistics above). This is the second GOP nomination contest in a row where turnout was less than in 2008 (see: Florida)

In terms of the counties in Nevada, Ron Paul won two counties: he retained Nye county from 2008 and picked-up neighboring Esmerelda county. Newt Gingrich won Mineral county. Mitt Romney retained the remaining 13 counties.

There were obvious problems with organization at the caucuses, which resulted in a delayed vote count and ensuing tally in Clark County, but there also a considerable delay in Lander County.