Thread: Regardless of whether it's the Great Depression or not...

I'm curious if anyone else besides me thinks that modern technology will play a part in our economy being able to spring back quicker than it did back in the 30's.

With electronic investing and the internet, I think we can recover quickly from this, once we start to recover. Just like the electronic herd can take us down, it can pull us back up.

I keep thinking of that movie Grapes of Wrath where all those people went to California to pick crops based on some flyers. Of course I don't know if that really happened, but it kind of shows the limitations of people with few skills other than farming, and no information in this situation. Maybe this family could have gotten work picking potates in Idaho, but how would they know? Just imagine if they could have gone on line to look for a job.

We have a very diversified work force now and people have the ability to look for opportunities at their fingertips on the internet.

My feeling is that once things get to a certain point of declining, they will head in the other direction very rapidly.

So, if this is the new Great Depression, what will be different this time because of technology?

And yes MichaelR, I know the dollar will be worthless and hyperinflation will render us all doomed, but besides that...

Good question thank for posting it.

In my thoughts we will bounce back based on how fast people are able to adjust the changes. You seemed to think as much when you mentioned that we have a diversified work force and job searching available at ones fingertips.

I am not so sure we have a diversified work force how it counts. We may have many different kinds of people working but are all those people specialists or generalists? Specialists are exactly what you want you if the job is complex and requires a lot of training. But those people are exactly the ones who will have a hard time changing to other jobs that are just as good.

The ease of searching for jobs could very well be a boon.

What else makes it hard or easy for people to adapt?

Originally Posted by lakeman

Good question thank for posting it.

In my thoughts we will bounce back based on how fast people are able to adjust the changes. You seemed to think as much when you mentioned that we have a diversified work force and job searching available at ones fingertips.

I am not so sure we have a diversified work force how it counts. We may have many different kinds of people working but are all those people specialists or generalists? Specialists are exactly what you want you if the job is complex and requires a lot of training. But those people are exactly the ones who will have a hard time changing to other jobs that are just as good.

The ease of searching for jobs could very well be a boon.

What else makes it hard or easy for people to adapt?

Well, back in the thirties we were a much more agrarian society. How many people even finished high school?

And once one thing gets going it attracts other things. You open an ethanol plant (I'm not an ethonol fan but it's kind of a good example) and those jobs resonate into jobs and development that supports that and so and so on. And today you don't have to wait for the word to get out, you have instant communications.

I think you underestimate how quickly people can adjust. What they need is for someone to tell them what they need to adjust to. Right now nobody seems to know what's going on or what the plan is.

Originally Posted by Blueneck

Well, back in the thirties we were a much more agrarian society. How many people even finished high school?

And once one thing gets going it attracts other things. You open an ethanol plant (I'm not an ethonol fan but it's kind of a good example) and those jobs resonate into jobs and development that supports that and so and so on. And today you don't have to wait for the word to get out, you have instant communications.

I think you underestimate how quickly people can adjust. What they need is for someone to tell them what they need to adjust to. Right now nobody seems to know what's going on or what the plan is.

I have complete faith that hundreds of thousands of people all searching for a new and better job will find jobs if they want to. I agree with you that they can adjust quickly. But they don't need to be told how or where to find a job.

The question is will they find the jobs faster than they have historically or slower than they have historically. My premise is that if they could find jobs instantaneously there would be no unemployment and in a related way no potential recession or depression. If it took them three years to find job then that would add to the risk of depression. We will be somewhere in between but what will the results be?

Originally Posted by lakeman

I have complete faith that hundreds of thousands of people all searching for a new and better job will find jobs if they want to. I agree with you that they can adjust quickly. But they don't need to be told how or where to find a job.

The question is will they find the jobs faster than they have historically or slower than they have historically. My premise is that if they could find jobs instantaneously there would be no unemployment and in a related way no potential recession or depression. If it took them three years to find job then that would add to the risk of depression. We will be somewhere in between but what will the results be?

So you tell me. If I were able to afford (or get assistance) to go to college, what courses should I take? What segment of the economy will recover first?

lets look at some facts.

23,000 retailers to close

540~ trillion in derivatives

60% of the GDP just gone

6 months of decreasing retail sales, and this will lead to a commercial property collapse

The economy has been contracting on an unprecedented rate

the list goes on, and I do not understand how technology can help. He still have a hyperinflation phase to go through and total collapse.

Originally Posted by Blueneck

So you tell me. If I were able to afford (or get assistance) to go to college, what courses should I take? What segment of the economy will recover first?

Read, I, Pencil | Library of Economics and Liberty

Originally Posted by Blueneck

So you tell me. If I were able to afford (or get assistance) to go to college, what courses should I take? What segment of the economy will recover first?

Btw, if you need to go to college to get the specialized knowledge to get a job that will slow down your employment and what you can add to the GDP.

Originally Posted by michaelr

lets look at some facts.

23,000 retailers to close

540~ trillion in derivatives

60% of the GDP just gone

6 months of decreasing retail sales, and this will lead to a commercial property collapse

The economy has been contracting on an unprecedented rate

the list goes on, and I do not understand how technology can help. He still have a hyperinflation phase to go through and total collapse.

You're just a little ray of sunshine, aren't you Mike?

Don't you think technology is already helping by the fact people are more aware of what is happening? The only ones left standing are going to be businesses with low overhead, and don't rely so much on credit. I predict small businesses will do better than the big boys.

A good example would be that since people won't be able to afford to buy new stuff to replace the old, so people who fix things (I know there aren't many of them left) are going to be doing better. In November, our sewing machine broke and when we took it to the only repair place in town, they were so booked up they were unable to even look at it for a month.

You can extrapolate where I'm going with that yourself, I do think the old saying about "when a door closes a window opens" or however it goes is very true. You just need to assess what room your are in to know where the windows are. My Zen wisdom for the day.

The hyperinflation thing is worrisome, though. I imagine that can be dealt with to some degree by simply more trading of goods and services by those of us down here on the ground. And the fact that it's a global recession means our currency is valued by it's comparison to other currency so it's not so bad, yet, anyway.

Or I could just be completely full of shit. :dunno:

Originally Posted by lakeman

Btw, if you need to go to college to get the specialized knowledge to get a job that will slow down your employment and what you can add to the GDP.

That wasn't really the point of my question. Let's say I had a degree or knowledge that was useful, but there are no jobs in my specific area of expertise (let's say it's marketing just for fun) in my geographical location right now. Should I consider relocating? To where? I'd have to sell my house for a pittance so it better be worth it, not just for some temp job.

What people need to know is how to gage what sectors of the economy are going to expand or at least survive when this blows over (presuming it does), so they can plan for it.

I think the government will have a lot to do with this.

People aren't that worried about what they contribute to the GDP, BTW. Those numbers have been so compromised by bullshit accounting methods they have become pretty much useless to anyone who isn't using them for some specific purpose.