Newt now established front-runner for one full month

**bonncaruso** · 14th December 2011 03:20 AM

Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
Most recent – Averages	11/06 – 11/13	--	34,20	20,80	7,40	8,80	6,60	4,20	2,80	0,00	15,20	Gingrich +13.40
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	12/7 - 12/11	271 RV	40	23	9	6	8	3	5	0	6	Gingrich +17
Pew Research	12/7 - 12/11	504 RV	33	21	4	8	6	3	3	0	22	Gingrich +12
Gallup Tracking	12/8 - 12/12	1277 RV	31	22	7	7	8	4	2	0	19	Gingrich +9
Fox News	12/05 – 12/11	711 RV	36	23	8	12	5	4	2	0	10	Gingrich +13
YouGov/Economist	12/03 – 12/06	1000 RV	31	15	9	11	6	7	2	0	19	Gingrich +16
DEC '11
Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
	Monthly Avg.	---	36,60	23,40	3,20	7,10	6,20	2,00	0,00	0,00	22	Gingrich +13.20


NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	12/7 - 12/11	271 RV	40	23	9	6	8	3	5	0	6	Gingrich +17
Pew Research	12/7 - 12/11	504 RV	33	21	4	8	6	3	3	0	22	Gingrich +12
Gallup Tracking	12/8 - 12/12	1277 RV	31	22	7	7	8	4	2	0	19	Gingrich +9
Fox News	12/05 – 12/11	711 RV	36	23	8	12	5	4	2	0	10	Gingrich +13
Gallup Tracking	12/03 – 12/07	1277 RV	34	25	5	10	7	2	1	0	16	Gingrich +9
YouGov/Economist	12/03 – 12/06	1000 RV	31	15	9	11	6	7	2	0	19	Gingrich +16
Fairleigh Dickinson	11/29 – 12/05	855 RV	37	25	6	3	4	4	1	8	12	Gingrich +12
Gallup Tracking	12/01 – 12/05	1277 RV	37	22	8	8	6	3	1	0	15	Gingrich +15
Poll Position (MOR-R)	12/04 – 12/04	1072 RV	36,6	23,4	3,2	7,1	6,2	2,0	0,0	0,0	22	Gingrich +13.2
NOV '11
Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
	Monthly Avg.	------	19,70	22,43	8,52	7,63	4,40	2,10	1,72	20,17	13	Romney +2.26
Rasmussen Reports	11/30 - 11/30	1000 LV	38	17	4	8	4	4	3	8	14	Gingrich +21
CNN/Opinion Research	11/18 - 11/20	402 A	24	20	11	9	5	4	3	17	7	Gingrich +4
Quinnipiac	11/14 - 11/20	1039 RV	26	22	6	6	4	2	2	14	18	Gingrich +4
USA Today/Gallup	11/13 - 11/17	946 RV	22	21	8	9	4	1	1	16	18	Gingrich +1
Economist/YouGov	11/13 - 11/15	914 RV	23	19	6	7	5	2	5	21	12	Gingrich +2
FOX News	11/13 - 11/15	370 RV	23	22	7	8	6	2	3	15	14	Gingrich +1
PPP (D)	11/10 – 11/13	576 LV	28	18	6	5	5	3	1	25	9	Gingrich +3

Newt has led in every poll since around Nov. 15th. That's 16 polls, but actually more, I am not recording the daily Gallup tracking - yet. He is now the clear front runner, with a lead no less than 9 points in every poll since the end of November.

**jackalope** · 14th December 2011 03:53 AM

Hm. Should be about time for his implosion then. The other not-Mitt front runners have averaged about 5-6 weeks as the not-Mitt frontrunner candidate, Rachel Maddow pointed out on her show a few weeks ago.

**mtm1963** · 14th December 2011 04:19 AM

Originally Posted by bonncaruso

Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
Most recent – Averages	11/06 – 11/13	--	34,20	20,80	7,40	8,80	6,60	4,20	2,80	0,00	15,20	Gingrich +13.40
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	12/7 - 12/11	271 RV	40	23	9	6	8	3	5	0	6	Gingrich +17
Pew Research	12/7 - 12/11	504 RV	33	21	4	8	6	3	3	0	22	Gingrich +12
Gallup Tracking	12/8 - 12/12	1277 RV	31	22	7	7	8	4	2	0	19	Gingrich +9
Fox News	12/05 – 12/11	711 RV	36	23	8	12	5	4	2	0	10	Gingrich +13
YouGov/Economist	12/03 – 12/06	1000 RV	31	15	9	11	6	7	2	0	19	Gingrich +16
DEC '11
Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
	Monthly Avg.	---	36,60	23,40	3,20	7,10	6,20	2,00	0,00	0,00	22	Gingrich +13.20


NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	12/7 - 12/11	271 RV	40	23	9	6	8	3	5	0	6	Gingrich +17
Pew Research	12/7 - 12/11	504 RV	33	21	4	8	6	3	3	0	22	Gingrich +12
Gallup Tracking	12/8 - 12/12	1277 RV	31	22	7	7	8	4	2	0	19	Gingrich +9
Fox News	12/05 – 12/11	711 RV	36	23	8	12	5	4	2	0	10	Gingrich +13
Gallup Tracking	12/03 – 12/07	1277 RV	34	25	5	10	7	2	1	0	16	Gingrich +9
YouGov/Economist	12/03 – 12/06	1000 RV	31	15	9	11	6	7	2	0	19	Gingrich +16
Fairleigh Dickinson	11/29 – 12/05	855 RV	37	25	6	3	4	4	1	8	12	Gingrich +12
Gallup Tracking	12/01 – 12/05	1277 RV	37	22	8	8	6	3	1	0	15	Gingrich +15
Poll Position (MOR-R)	12/04 – 12/04	1072 RV	36,6	23,4	3,2	7,1	6,2	2,0	0,0	0,0	22	Gingrich +13.2
NOV '11
Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
	Monthly Avg.	------	19,70	22,43	8,52	7,63	4,40	2,10	1,72	20,17	13	Romney +2.26
Rasmussen Reports	11/30 - 11/30	1000 LV	38	17	4	8	4	4	3	8	14	Gingrich +21
CNN/Opinion Research	11/18 - 11/20	402 A	24	20	11	9	5	4	3	17	7	Gingrich +4
Quinnipiac	11/14 - 11/20	1039 RV	26	22	6	6	4	2	2	14	18	Gingrich +4
USA Today/Gallup	11/13 - 11/17	946 RV	22	21	8	9	4	1	1	16	18	Gingrich +1
Economist/YouGov	11/13 - 11/15	914 RV	23	19	6	7	5	2	5	21	12	Gingrich +2
FOX News	11/13 - 11/15	370 RV	23	22	7	8	6	2	3	15	14	Gingrich +1
PPP (D)	11/10 – 11/13	576 LV	28	18	6	5	5	3	1	25	9	Gingrich +3

Newt has led in every poll since around Nov. 15th. That's 16 polls, but actually more, I am not recording the daily Gallup tracking - yet. He is now the clear front runner, with a lead no less than 9 points in every poll since the end of November.

is there a typo in your 1st table 11-6 - 11-13? lol

**Ronin Tetsuro** · 14th December 2011 05:05 PM

Anyone who votes Newt is a goddamn moron. Period.

**bonncaruso** · 14th December 2011 06:20 PM

Originally Posted by mtm1963

is there a typo in your 1st table 11-6 - 11-13? lol

@mtm1963 Yes, I forgot to upgrade the date. Sorry about that, am pressed with a hell of a lot of work. The top table is of the most recent 6 or 7 polls. You can see from the poll number on the left that they are also duplicated in the actual month of December. It is a lot easier to run quick calculations this way. Again, sorry for not adjusting the rolling polling date. Since more polling has come in today, here is the large table again, with the correction. Gingrich's average has fallen slightly, but he is still in double digits over Romney.

No.	Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
	Most recent – Averages	12/05 – 12/13	--	32,86	21,71	7,43	9,71	7,57	4,00	2,86	0,00	13,86	Gingrich +11.45
153	Ipsos / Reuters	12/08 – 12/12	1000 V	28	18	12	12	10	5	4	0	11	Gingrich +10
152	AP / GFK	12/08 – 12/11	1000 A	33	27	6	9	9	3	2	0	11	Gingrich +6
151	YouGov/Economist	12/10 – 12/13	1000 A	29	18	6	14	7	6	2	0	18	Gingrich +11
150	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	12/7 - 12/11	271 RV	40	23	9	6	8	3	5	0	6	Gingrich +17
149	Pew Research	12/7 - 12/11	504 RV	33	21	4	8	6	3	3	0	22	Gingrich +12
148	Gallup Tracking	12/8 - 12/12	1277 RV	31	22	7	7	8	4	2	0	19	Gingrich +9
147	Fox News	12/05 – 12/11	711 RV	36	23	8	12	5	4	2	0	10	Gingrich +13
	DEC '11
No.	Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
		Monthly Avg.	---	36,60	23,40	3,20	7,10	6,20	2,00	0,00	0,00	22	Gingrich +13.20


153	Ipsos / Reuters	12/08 – 12/12	1000 V	28	18	12	12	10	5	4	0	11	Gingrich +10
152	AP / GFK	12/08 – 12/11	1000 A	33	27	6	9	9	3	2	0	11	Gingrich +6
151	YouGov/Economist	12/10 – 12/13	1000 A	29	18	6	14	7	6	2	0	18	Gingrich +11
150	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	12/7 - 12/11	271 RV	40	23	9	6	8	3	5	0	6	Gingrich +17
149	Pew Research	12/7 - 12/11	504 RV	33	21	4	8	6	3	3	0	22	Gingrich +12
148	Gallup Tracking	12/8 - 12/12	1277 RV	31	22	7	7	8	4	2	0	19	Gingrich +9
147	Fox News	12/05 – 12/11	711 RV	36	23	8	12	5	4	2	0	10	Gingrich +13
146	Gallup Tracking	12/03 – 12/07	1277 RV	34	25	5	10	7	2	1	0	16	Gingrich +9
145	YouGov/Economist	12/03 – 12/06	1000 RV	31	15	9	11	6	7	2	0	19	Gingrich +16
144	Fairleigh Dickinson	11/29 – 12/05	855 RV	37	25	6	3	4	4	1	8	12	Gingrich +12
143	Gallup Tracking	12/01 – 12/05	1277 RV	37	22	8	8	6	3	1	0	15	Gingrich +15
142	Poll Position (MOR-R)	12/04 – 12/04	1072 RV	36,6	23,4	3,2	7,1	6,2	2,0	0,0	0,0	22	Gingrich +13.2
	NOV '11
No.	Poll	Date	Sample	Gingrich	Romney	Perry	Paul	Bachmann	Santorum	Huntsman	Cain	Oth / Und	Spread
		Monthly Avg.	------	19,70	22,43	8,52	7,63	4,40	2,10	1,72	20,17	13	Romney +2.26
141	Rasmussen Reports	11/30 - 11/30	1000 LV	38	17	4	8	4	4	3	8	14	Gingrich +21
140	CNN/Opinion Research	11/18 - 11/20	402 A	24	20	11	9	5	4	3	17	7	Gingrich +4
139	Quinnipiac	11/14 - 11/20	1039 RV	26	22	6	6	4	2	2	14	18	Gingrich +4
138	USA Today/Gallup	11/13 - 11/17	946 RV	22	21	8	9	4	1	1	16	18	Gingrich +1
137	Economist/YouGov	11/13 - 11/15	914 RV	23	19	6	7	5	2	5	21	12	Gingrich +2
136	FOX News	11/13 - 11/15	370 RV	23	22	7	8	6	2	3	15	14	Gingrich +1
135	PPP (D)	11/10 – 11/13	576 LV	28	18	6	5	5	3	1	25	9	Gingrich +3

**HenryPorter** · 14th December 2011 07:08 PM

Originally Posted by Ronin Tetsuro

Anyone who votes Newt is a goddamn moron. Period.

Sadly there is no lack of those in America. I recall the old definition, an idiot is someone who voted for Bush once, and a moron voted for him twice. Definitions evolve I guess.

**Ronin Tetsuro** · 14th December 2011 07:10 PM

Originally Posted by HenryPorter

Sadly there is no lack of those in America. I recall the old definition, an idiot is someone who voted for Bush once, and a moron voted for him twice. Definitions evolve I guess.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results.

**bonncaruso** · 14th December 2011 07:34 PM

Originally Posted by Ronin Tetsuro

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results.

OMG, the entire GOP is therefore INSANE!!!

**Ronin Tetsuro** · 14th December 2011 07:37 PM

Originally Posted by bonncaruso

OMG, the entire GOP is therefore INSANE!!!

Most of the DINO's, too.

**bonncaruso** · 14th December 2011 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by Ronin Tetsuro

Most of the DINO's, too.

What about the CINO's?

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